Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $69.3K·Volume $901.1K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$8,963 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered96¢99¢at 04:54(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$69.3K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $8,963 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 96¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $8,963 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.