Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $208.5K·Volume $14.0M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
Yes
4% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
4%price4%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,378 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered3.0¢3.8¢at 04:47(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$208.5K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,378 riding on it.
The price of 4% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 3.0¢; the price was 3.8¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,378 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 04:47
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.9¢ | $0 |