Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?
ActiveLiquidity $16.0K·Volume $123.4K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$446 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered82¢100¢at 06:26(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$16.0K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $446 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $446 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:26
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $582 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $251 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $75 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $192 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $192 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $27 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $237 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $18 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $79 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $102 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $481 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $39 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $70 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $18 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $18 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $3,408 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $27 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $106 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $30 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $49 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $45 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $18 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $500 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $279 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $441 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $50 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $22 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $220 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $50 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $18 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $50 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $79 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $61 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $2,355 |
| 6d ago | RhabarberbarbarbarMid | Sell | No | 100¢ | $910 |