Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
ActiveLiquidity $455.0K·Volume $9.1M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
Yes
1% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
1%price1%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,898 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered1.0¢1.3¢at 00:01(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$455.0K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,898 riding on it.
The price of 1% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 1.0¢; the price was 1.3¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,898 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:01
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $1 |
| 3d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.2¢ | $59 |
| 3d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $90 |
| 3d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $126 |
| 3d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $90 |
| 3d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $3,001 |
| 3d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $50 |
| 4d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $101 |
| 4d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $324 |
| 4d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $90 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $278 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $10 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $18 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $20 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $10 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $18 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $32 |
| 5d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | Yes | 1.6¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $6 |
| 5d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.2¢ | $1 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $100 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $22 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $289 |
| 5d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $15 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $100 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $90 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $9 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $181 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $10 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 1.8¢ | $158 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $779 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $33 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $119 |