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Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $888.1K·Volume $16.0M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes14%No86%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:19computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
86% at snapshot
Divergence
-1.0pp
model below price
Consensus
68%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
86%price85%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$3,356 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$6,068
72h +$6,068
Smart money entered84¢86¢at 07:19Edge leftnoneLast smart buy13h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$888.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $3,356 riding on it.

The price of 86% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 84¢; the price was 86¢ at this snapshot.

Note: only $3,356 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$6,068, +$6,068 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:19
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
13h agoOptimus-MidBuyNo85¢$3,018
13h agoOptimus-MidBuyNo85¢$3,000
1w agothebug44MidBuyYes16¢$2
2w ago4751346MidSellNo84¢$6
2w ago4751346MidSellNo84¢$60
2w ago4751346MidSellNo84¢$124
2w ago4751346MidSellNo84¢$38
2w ago4751346MidSellNo84¢$142
2w ago4751346MidSellNo84¢$1
2w ago4751346MidSellNo84¢$120
2w ago4751346MidSellNo83¢$9
2w ago4751346MidSellNo84¢$12
2w ago4751346MidSellNo83¢$113
2w ago4751346MidSellNo83¢$17
2w ago4751346MidSellNo83¢$83
2w ago4751346MidSellNo83¢$109
2w ago4751346MidSellNo84¢$168
2w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes17¢$499
2w agol3t0MidBuyYes16¢$238
2w agothebug44MidBuyYes17¢$622
2w agothebug44MidBuyYes17¢$13
2w agothebug44MidBuyYes17¢$4
2w agothebug44MidBuyYes17¢$45
2w agothebug44MidBuyYes17¢$1
2w agothebug44MidBuyYes17¢$371
2w ago4751346MidBuyNo83¢$167
2w agol3t0MidBuyYes16¢$900
2w agol3t0MidBuyYes16¢$8
2w agol3t0MidBuyYes16¢$1
3w agothebug44MidBuyYes16¢$2
3w agoBreakTheBankTopBuyYes16¢$14
3w agoBreakTheBankTopBuyYes16¢$19
3w agoBreakTheBankTopBuyYes16¢$451
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$145
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$189
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$1
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$5
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$3
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$180
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$0
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$33
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$2
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$23
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$21
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$23
5w agoBreakTheBankTopSellYes18¢$24
5w agothebug44MidBuyYes18¢$2
5w agothebug44MidBuyYes18¢$0
5w agothebug44MidBuyYes18¢$0
5w agothebug44MidBuyYes18¢$0