Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $323.8K·Volume $18.3M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
Yes
2% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
2%price2%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$2,320 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered1.6¢1.8¢at 04:20(67% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$323.8K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,320 riding on it.
The price of 2% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 1.6¢; the price was 1.8¢ at this snapshot — roughly 67% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 04:20
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 1.8¢ | $90 |
| 6d ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $61 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $37 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $126 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | whigTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | tunatylerTop | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $329 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $356 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $33 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.4¢ | $22 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.8¢ | $30 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $1,210 |
| 2w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 2.1¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 2.1¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 2.1¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 2.1¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 2.1¢ | $3 |
| 4w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 2.5¢ | $6 |
| 4w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 2.6¢ | $8 |
| 4w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 2.6¢ | $13 |
| 6w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $135 |
| 6w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $3 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 3.3¢ | $4 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 3.3¢ | $5 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $12 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $0 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $0 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $0 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $0 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $0 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $0 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 3.2¢ | $0 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 3.2¢ | $0 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 3.2¢ | $3 |