Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $242.0K·Volume $34.6M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
Yes
4% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
4%price4%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$1,044 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered1.5¢3.6¢at 18:49(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$242.0K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,044 riding on it.
The price of 4% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 1.5¢; the price was 3.6¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 18:49
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $113 |
| 3d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $42 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $16 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $36 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.8¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.7¢ | $4 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 2.1¢ | $535 |
| 2w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.1¢ | $84 |
| 2w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.1¢ | $210 |
| 4w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $50 |
| 4w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $249 |