Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
ActiveLiquidity $626.6K·Volume $1.0M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
Yes
1% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
1%price1%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,194 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered0.5¢0.5¢at 01:56(36% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$626.6K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,194 riding on it.
The price of 1% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 0.5¢; the price was 0.5¢ at this snapshot — roughly 36% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,194 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 01:56
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $82 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $98 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $13 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $140 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $16 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $3 |