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Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

ActiveLiquidity $626.6K·Volume $1.0M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes1%No99%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 01:56computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
1% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
1%price1%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$1,194 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered0.5¢0.5¢at 01:56(36% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$626.6K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,194 riding on it.

The price of 1% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 0.5¢; the price was 0.5¢ at this snapshot — roughly 36% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $1,194 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 01:56
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.4¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.4¢$0
3d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.4¢$82
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$98
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$3
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$3
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$3
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$3
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$3
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$13
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$3
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$3
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$3
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$3
6d agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.5¢$11
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$140
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$16
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$4
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$0
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$0
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$6
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$0
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$3