NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $50.6K·Volume $466.5K·Ends Nov 16, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
96%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$25.5K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$965
72h +$2,293
Smart money entered93¢98¢at 07:13(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy9h agoResolvesin 5d(Nov 16, 2026)Liquidity$50.6K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $25.5K riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$965, +$2,293 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:13
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $437 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $437 |
| 9h ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $31 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 1d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $76 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $121 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $3 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $264 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $227 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $82 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $247 |
| 2d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $277 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $195 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $21 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $29 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $867 |
| 5d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $198 |
| 6d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $4,925 |
| 6d ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $3,059 |
| 6d ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $886 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $370 |
| 1w ago | aenews2Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.1¢ | $241 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $218 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $343 |
| 1w ago | hugecaulkMid | Buy | Yes | 2.1¢ | $11 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $4,552 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $4,857 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 98¢ | $98 |
| 1w ago | yen4uMid | Buy | No | 97¢ | $260 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $782 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $754 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $287 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $963 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $2,616 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $197 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $144 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $3,781 |
| 1w ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $902 |
| 1w ago | 0x77266604E63f5cAF08D19CaEBae0C563ce064aETop | Sell | No | 96¢ | $442 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 7.0¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | nonkenny90Mid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $53 |