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lava-lava

TopPolymarket
0x629bc4a1e53e1d475beb7ea3d388791e96dd995a
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $170.8K
Quality score
0.66
Goodas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
+$233.2K
PnL 90d
+$240.1K
ROI 90d
+29%
on $841.2K deployed
Entry edge
54%
147 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$2.1M
11151 trades
Breadth 90d
760
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 13:59
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes47.8K39¢100¢$47,780+$29.0K
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?Yes10.1K59¢100¢$10,145+$4,194
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes10K24¢98¢$9,845+$7,445
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No8.5K70¢99¢$8,368+$2,427
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Yes7.4K37¢99¢$7,308+$4,590
Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?No6K63¢100¢$6,022+$2,235
Blue tsunami in 2026?Yes5.8K50¢100¢$5,826+$2,905
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes5K82¢100¢$5,000+$900
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes4.5K72¢99¢$4,452+$1,206
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No4.7K35¢88¢$4,125+$2,473
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No4K82¢100¢$4,000+$720
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?No3.9K45¢100¢$3,871+$2,138
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes62.5K2.1¢5.9¢$3,656+$2,308
Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?No3.1K56¢100¢$3,075+$1,339
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes3.3K31¢87¢$2,913+$1,890
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes2.8K22¢97¢$2,726+$2,098
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?Yes2.7K27¢100¢$2,674+$1,946
Will Tomáš Vohryzka be the next Mayor of Ústí nad Labem?Yes2.6K87¢98¢$2,524+$301
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?Yes2.3K37¢99¢$2,290+$1,425
Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?No2.2K36¢100¢$2,161+$1,376
Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes2K8.6¢100¢$1,960+$1,792
Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?No1.8K54¢100¢$1,839+$841
Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?No1.5K27¢97¢$1,474+$1,060
Will Petr Hlaváček be the next Mayor of Prague?Yes1.4K46¢96¢$1,361+$702
Iran nuclear test before 2027?No1.4K89¢98¢$1,351+$127
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?No1.1K25¢100¢$1,149+$860
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?No1.1K30¢100¢$1,111+$778
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?No1K90¢98¢$988+$85
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?No1K75¢95¢$958+$206
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 62-66%?No951.581¢100¢$952+$181
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?No950.483¢98¢$936+$147
Blue wave in 2026?Yes93058¢100¢$930+$391
Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?Yes89734¢100¢$897+$592
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes10K19¢8.5¢$850-$1,050
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 0%-3%?Yes859.413¢94¢$811+$697
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?No6.1K59¢13¢$764-$2,842
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No715.949¢100¢$716+$365
Tusk out by December 31?No719.790¢97¢$696+$48
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes5.6K57¢12¢$672-$2,505
Spain General Election: PP + Vox Majority?Yes66680¢94¢$626+$93
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes848.477¢70¢$590-$64
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No586.965¢98¢$577+$194
Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?No55539¢99¢$552+$335
Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?No55531¢94¢$519+$347
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-11 House election by 65%-70%?Yes523.719¢97¢$508+$411
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?Yes504.778¢99¢$502+$110
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?Yes7915.7¢60¢$475+$429
Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?Yes432.133¢100¢$432+$289
Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?New Mexico2.6K14¢16¢$411+$51
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?Yes377.851¢100¢$378+$184
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?Yes361.332¢100¢$361+$246
Sweden snap election called in 2026?No437.579¢82¢$357+$11
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election?Yes35824¢98¢$351+$265
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?Yes356.625¢97¢$345+$256
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes6.8K5.0¢4.7¢$318-$20
Will Miroslava Ferancová be the next Mayor of Olomouc?No312.211¢100¢$312+$279
Will US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?No297.185¢100¢$297+$45
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election?Yes252.137¢99¢$250+$157
Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?Yes50044¢48¢$238+$18
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes9.6K4.1¢2.4¢$235-$157
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No248.867¢86¢$215+$49
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-03 House election by 5%-10%?Yes681.217¢29¢$198+$84
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?Yes1.6K15¢11¢$173-$70
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?Yes166.269¢100¢$166+$52
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-20 House election by 35%-40%?Yes624.618¢26¢$161+$49
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes11.8K27¢1.2¢$148-$3,052
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-03 House election by 3%-6%?Yes348.311¢42¢$146+$107
Will the Republican Party win the FL-07 House seat?No9K35¢1.6¢$145-$3,037
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 12% or more?Yes122.83.4¢95¢$117+$113
Closer Senate Race: South Dakota or New Mexico?South Dakota12733¢84¢$107+$66
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?No3.2K76¢3.1¢$102-$2,356
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election by 12%-15%?Yes17612¢55¢$98+$77
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-03 House election by 15%-20%?Yes1304.6¢70¢$92+$86
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes196.337¢45¢$89+$17
Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?No504.719¢17¢$88-$8
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-13 House election by 20%-25%?Yes229.119¢36¢$81+$38
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?Yes82.812¢98¢$81+$71
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No5.6K28¢1.3¢$72-$1,471
Will Tomáš Portlík be the next Mayor of Prague?Yes2.1K50¢2.8¢$58-$987
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?Yes5.6K46¢0.9¢$53-$2,476
Will Adam Scheinherr be the next Mayor of Prague?Yes2K7.8¢2.2¢$45-$112
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat?Yes3.7K30¢1.2¢$44-$1,068
Will the Democrats win New Hampshire in the 2028 Presidential Election?Yes63.736¢67¢$42+$19
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes223.613¢18¢$39+$10
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-13 House election by 55%-60%?Yes216.10.6¢18¢$38+$37
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?No4.5K15¢0.7¢$32-$654
Closer Senate Race: Alaska or Texas?Alaska27.323¢99¢$27+$21
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?No4.9K44¢0.5¢$27-$2,107
Will PP win the most seats in Valladolid in the 2026 Spanish general election?No281.45.0¢9.5¢$27+$13
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Yes7.6K12¢0.3¢$27-$901
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-05 House election by 35%-40%?Yes28422¢9.2¢$26-$36
Will Petr Hlaváček be the next Mayor of Prague?No59854¢4.2¢$25-$297
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 15%-20%?Yes806.122¢3.1¢$25-$155
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 6%-9%?Yes627.78.8¢3.7¢$24-$32
Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?No979.735¢2.2¢$22-$321
Will Tomáš Hrubý be the next Mayor of Ústí nad Labem?No2051¢99¢$20+$10
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 45%-50%?Yes665.218¢2.6¢$17-$101
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-12 House election by 20%-25%?Yes702.713¢2.3¢$17-$73
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 UT-03 House election by 30%-35%?Yes51516¢3.2¢$16-$64
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NM-03 House election by 10%-15%?Yes310.111¢5.1¢$16-$17
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes236.85.1¢6.0¢$14+$2
National Popular Vote Compact implemented before the 2028 election?No2047¢55¢$11+$2
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-15 House election by 12% or more?No258.780¢4.1¢$11-$196
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 10%-15%?Yes539.91.0¢1.7¢$9+$4
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio Senate election by 0%-3%?Yes1.6K18¢0.5¢$9-$267
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?Yes343.935¢2.4¢$8-$112
Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No7.834¢100¢$8+$5
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No16.389¢48¢$8-$7
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 12% or more?Yes3.2K10¢0.2¢$6-$316
Will Democrats win the Alaska Governor election and Republicans win the Alaska Senate election?Yes434.613¢1.4¢$6-$50
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-12 House election by 30%-35%?Yes12113¢5.0¢$6-$9
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 35% or more?Yes1.3K2.8¢0.4¢$6-$31
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?Yes2.2K43¢0.2¢$6-$957
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-09 House election by 5%-10%?Yes4018.0¢1.3¢$5-$27
Will SPD be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?No196.10.3¢2.2¢$4+$4
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election by 45% or more?Yes186.92.7¢2.3¢$4-$1
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-03 House election by 35%-40%?Yes49411¢0.9¢$4-$49
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-01 House election by 25%-30%?Yes245.47.4¢1.4¢$4-$15
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-09 House election by 40%-45%?Yes63.61.0¢5.4¢$3+$3
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-15 House election by 6%-9%?Yes575.72.4¢0.5¢$3-$11
Spain General Election: PP + Vox get 50%+ of Vote?No5.544¢52¢$3+$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NH-01 House election by 5%-10%?Yes35717¢0.8¢$3-$57
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes1.1K6.8¢0.2¢$2-$71
Will Louisiana be the closest Senate race in 2026?Yes253.12.1¢0.8¢$2-$3
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-37 House election by 60%-65%?Yes115.215¢1.7¢$2-$15
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-13 House election by 65%-70%?Yes1415¢12¢$2-$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 15%-20%?Yes557.217¢0.3¢$2-$94
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes106.744¢1.5¢$2-$45
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?Yes1.525¢100¢$2+$1
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-06 House election by 5%-15%?Yes244.80.5¢0.5¢$1+$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-03 House election by 15%-20%?Yes253.618¢0.5¢$1-$44
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-14 House election by 35%-40%?Yes27.63.5¢4.0¢$1+$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-03 House election by 0%-3%?Yes208.86.0¢0.5¢$1-$11
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AL-07 House election by 20%-25%?Yes93.19.2¢1.0¢$1-$8
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?No21.926¢4.3¢$1-$5
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-16 House election by 3%-6%?Yes162.61.4¢0.5¢$1-$1
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes1.3K10¢0.0¢$1-$126
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes1.2K18¢0.0¢$1-$211
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?Yes651.218¢0.0¢$0-$114
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?No0.371¢98¢$0+$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes487.413¢0.0¢$0-$63
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-12 House election by 45%-50%?Yes12111¢0.2¢$0-$13
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes465.810¢0.0¢$0-$47
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes0.488¢45¢$0-$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Senate election by 3%-6%?Yes66.111¢0.2¢$0-$7
Will an Independent Candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 0%-3%?Yes2458.0¢0.1¢$0-$19
Will Jan Hušbauer be the next Mayor of Prague?Yes69.47.7¢0.1¢$0-$5
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election by 0%-5%?Yes13327¢0.1¢$0-$36
Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes130.128¢0.0¢$0-$36
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 New Hampshire Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes54.610¢0.0¢$0-$5
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?Yes5023¢0.1¢$0-$11
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 10%-15%?Yes8.715¢0.1¢$0-$1
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by at least 12%?Yes200.3¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 AL-07 House election by 25%-30%?Yes2.415¢0.4¢$0-$0
Will Marián Porvažník win the 2026 Košice Region gubernatorial election?Yes270.443¢0.0¢$0-$117
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes2014¢0.0¢$0-$3
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat?No3.4K65¢0.0¢$0-$2,220
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?Yes9.3K28¢0.0¢$0-$2,621
Will Jan Dohnal be the next Mayor of Ostrava?Yes3025¢0.0¢$0-$7
Will Joint List win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes334.0¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?No1.1K5.0¢0.0¢$0-$56
Will The Joint List win 4.5-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes267.310¢0.0¢$0-$28
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?Yes1.5K16¢0.0¢$0-$226
Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by a margin of 5-10%?Yes63.512¢0.0¢$0-$8
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?No1K67¢0.0¢$0-$681
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes60.516¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?No555.750¢0.0¢$0-$280
Will Joint List win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes305.0¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes4.7K23¢0.0¢$0-$1,062
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?Yes4.2K44¢0.0¢$0-$1,861
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes243.9¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?Yes2.9K41¢0.0¢$0-$1,163
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?Yes33367¢0.0¢$0-$223
Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 4-5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes394.950¢0.0¢$0-$199
Will Joint List win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes6K22¢0.0¢$0-$1,324
Will US win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes911.132¢0.0¢$0-$294
Blue tsunami in 2026?No758.633¢0.0¢$0-$253
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?Yes12.855¢0.0¢$0-$7
Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?No1.9K26¢0.0¢$0-$508
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?Yes35.610¢0.0¢$0-$4
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes16.8K34¢0.0¢$0-$5,793
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No10.6K34¢0.0¢$0-$3,624
Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes3336.0¢0.0¢$0-$20
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes368.330¢0.0¢$0-$110
Will Ra'am win fewer than 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes2.3K2.1¢0.0¢$0-$49
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial second round by 10%-15%?Yes417.415¢0.0¢$0-$63
Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?No1.1K14¢0.0¢$0-$153
Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?No4.1K86¢0.0¢$0-$3,534
Will Yashar win less than 16% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes22417¢0.0¢$0-$38
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Yes1.6K25¢0.0¢$0-$399
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?Yes2.4K61¢0.0¢$0-$1,455
Will Arruda win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?Yes3.6K0.6¢0.0¢$0-$20
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?No5.6K22¢0.0¢$0-$1,253
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes327.149¢0.0¢$0-$160
Will Religious Zionist Party–Zehut win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?No89.48.0¢0.0¢$0-$7
Will United Serbia win the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election by 10% or more?Yes1.5K16¢0.0¢$0-$238
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?No853.861¢0.0¢$0-$521
Will Ra'am win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes1.1K25¢0.0¢$0-$278
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?No465.630¢0.0¢$0-$140
Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Yes296.153¢0.0¢$0-$157
Will Ra'am win exactly 4 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes1.4K6.6¢0.0¢$0-$94
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?Yes4.3K62¢0.0¢$0-$2,675
Will Ra'am win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes4.8K57¢0.0¢$0-$2,725
Will Ra'am win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes15K9.2¢0.0¢$0-$1,375
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes2K7.3¢0.0¢$0-$146
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes2.9K9.5¢0.0¢$0-$272
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?Yes1K30¢0.0¢$0-$300
Will Motoristé get between 7% and 9% of the vote in the Czech election?Yes7.6K26¢0.0¢$0-$1,967