Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas Senate election?
ActiveLiquidity $16.2K·Volume $27.6K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes99%No1%
Smart money leans
Yes
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$2,591 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered49¢99¢at 02:19(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy5d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$16.2K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $2,591 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 49¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $2,591 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:19
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $265 |
| 1w ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Sell | Yes | 53¢ | $265 |
| 1w ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $3,024 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $48 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $50 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $19 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $19 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $46 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $20 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $20 |
| 3w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 39¢ | $24 |
| 4w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $185 |