Will the Republican Party win the FL-09 House seat?
ActiveLiquidity $17.4K·Volume $95.0K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
No
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$785 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$39
Smart money entered37¢100¢at 00:44(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$17.4K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $785 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 37¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $785 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$39 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $38 |
| 6d ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $147 |
| 6d ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $115 |
| 6d ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 94¢ | $169 |
| 6d ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $427 |
| 6d ago | AddarashMid | Sell | No | 96¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 71¢ | $79 |
| 1w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 36¢ | $36 |
| 1w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 36¢ | $43 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | No | 34¢ | $295 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | No | 36¢ | $77 |
| 1w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 63¢ | $64 |
| 1w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $55 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | No | 38¢ | $422 |
| 1w ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $25 |
| 1w ago | RailcoolTop | Buy | No | 36¢ | $510 |
| 1w ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 37¢ | $296 |
| 1w ago | RLWGMid | Buy | No | 48¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | No | 36¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | No | 36¢ | $28 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | No | 36¢ | $18 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | No | 36¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | No | 36¢ | $44 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | No | 36¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 31¢ | $28 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 31¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 31¢ | $76 |
| 2w ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 31¢ | $2 |
| 7w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | No | 32¢ | $12 |
| 11w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 31¢ | $13 |