Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?
ActiveLiquidity $13.6K·Volume $12.7K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$399 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered42¢99¢at 07:11(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$13.6K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $399 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 42¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $399 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:11
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 46¢ | $47 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | No | 39¢ | $216 |
| 1w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 49¢ | $73 |
| 1w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 46¢ | $23 |
| 1w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | No | 40¢ | $40 |
| 5w ago | JAMJAMJAM4Mid | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $44 |
| 7w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 59¢ | $4 |
| 7w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 60¢ | $8 |
| 7w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 60¢ | $23 |
| 8w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 58¢ | $35 |