Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?
ActiveLiquidity $19.3K·Volume $68.5K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes97%No3%
Smart money leans
Yes
97% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
85%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
97%price97%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$829 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered60¢97¢at 02:01(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$19.3K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $829 riding on it.
The price of 97% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 60¢; the price was 97¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $829 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:01
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 96¢ | $10 |
| 3d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $150 |
| 3d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $26 |
| 3d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $29 |
| 3d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $25 |
| 3d ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $57 |
| 6d ago | ssddssdMid | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | No | 26¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | No | 26¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $8 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $55 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $14 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $7 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 55¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 50¢ | $462 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $38 |
| 6d ago | soapbubblesTop | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $45 |
| 6d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Sell | Yes | 49¢ | $34 |
| 1w ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $26 |
| 6w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Sell | No | 99¢ | $5 |
| 6w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $2,380 |