Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $548.8K·Volume $2.8M·Ends Apr 19, 2027
Price now:Yes6%No94%
Smart money leans
No
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
95%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
7
$17.0K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$170
72h +$5,052
Smart money entered93¢94¢at 07:17(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 159d(Apr 19, 2027)Liquidity$548.8K
Explanation
7 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $17.0K riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$170, +$5,052 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:17
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | boyauMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $169 |
| 1d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | Yes | 5.9¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | YouSayUpISayDownMid | Sell | Yes | 5.9¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | Yes | 7.7¢ | $578 |
| 1d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $348 |
| 1d ago | lava-lavaTop | Sell | Yes | 7.7¢ | $578 |
| 1d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $348 |
| 2d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $114 |
| 2d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $114 |
| 2d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $2,035 |
| 2d ago | TBill1Mid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $1,860 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $26 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $26 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $6 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $6 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $27 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $25 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $25 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $432 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $432 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $6 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $6 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $56 |
| 4d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $56 |
| 4d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $62 |
| 4d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $62 |
| 4d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $332 |
| 4d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $332 |
| 5d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $203 |
| 5d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $196 |
| 5d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $196 |
| 5d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $481 |
| 5d ago | 080526Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $466 |
| 5d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $409 |
| 5d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 93¢ | $481 |
| 6d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $81 |
| 6d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $185 |
| 6d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $175 |
| 6d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $184 |
| 6d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $4,685 |
| 6d ago | SlenderManMid | Buy | No | 92¢ | $184 |
| 1w ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Sell | Yes | 9.9¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $27 |
| 1w ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Sell | Yes | 11¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Sell | Yes | 9.9¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Sell | Yes | 2.8¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Sell | Yes | 2.8¢ | $28 |
| 1w ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Buy | Yes | 1.6¢ | $16 |
| 1w ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Sell | Yes | 2.5¢ | $3 |