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Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $27.0K·Volume $48.4K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes4%No96%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 00:09computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$606 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$389
72h +$389
Smart money entered35¢96¢at 00:09(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy2h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$27.0K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $606 riding on it.

The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 35¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $606 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$389, +$389 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 00:09
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1h agomrworldwideTopBuyNo95¢$93
1h agomrworldwideTopBuyNo95¢$93
2h agomrworldwideTopBuyNo95¢$192
2h agomrworldwideTopBuyNo95¢$192
6d agolava-lavaTopBuyNo33¢$143
6d agossddssdMidBuyYes73¢$26
6d agothanksforplayinTopBuyNo12¢$7
6d agothanksforplayinTopBuyNo27¢$14
1w ago0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMidBuyNo37¢$37
1w agoancianoMidBuyNo36¢$144
1w agoancianoMidSellNo39¢$3
1w agoancianoMidSellNo39¢$4
1w agoancianoMidSellNo39¢$79
1w agoancianoMidSellNo39¢$40
1w agoancianoMidSellNo39¢$31
1w agoancianoMidSellNo38¢$36
1w agoancianoMidSellNo38¢$3
1w agoancianoMidSellNo38¢$63
1w agoancianoMidSellNo38¢$4
1w agoancianoMidSellNo38¢$4
1w agoancianoMidSellNo38¢$49
1w agoancianoMidBuyNo36¢$39
1w agoancianoMidBuyNo37¢$114
1w agoancianoMidBuyNo36¢$15
1w agoancianoMidBuyNo36¢$36
1w agoancianoMidBuyNo36¢$35
1w agoancianoMidBuyNo37¢$15
2w agoancianoMidBuyNo34¢$22
2w agoancianoMidBuyNo34¢$17
2w agoancianoMidSellYes64¢$64
2w agoancianoMidSellYes64¢$21
2w agoancianoMidSellYes64¢$43
2w agoancianoMidBuyYes62¢$24
2w agoancianoMidBuyYes62¢$25
2w agoancianoMidBuyYes63¢$76
2w agoancianoMidSellNo37¢$45
2w agoancianoMidBuyNo34¢$12
2w agoancianoMidBuyNo34¢$29
2w agoponydsbMidBuyNo35¢$29
2w agoancianoMidSellYes65¢$5
2w agoancianoMidSellYes65¢$65
2w agoancianoMidSellYes65¢$140
2w agoancianoMidSellYes65¢$150
2w agoancianoMidSellYes65¢$3
2w agoancianoMidSellYes67¢$133
2w agoG.HchenTopSellYes74¢$37
2w agolava-lavaTopBuyNo25¢$1
2w agolava-lavaTopBuyNo25¢$14
3w agolava-lavaTopBuyNo25¢$246
3w agolava-lavaTopBuyNo25¢$13