Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-06 House election by 10%-15%?
ActiveLiquidity $3,496·Volume $3,845·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$340 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered82¢98¢at 07:32(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$3,496
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $340 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $340 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:32
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d ago | ancianoMid | Buy | No | 100¢ | $56 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 10¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 9.3¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $19 |
| 1w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 90¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 8.8¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 6.7¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 92¢ | $18 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 97¢ | $160 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Sell | No | 92¢ | $92 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 91¢ | $15 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 85¢ | $34 |
| 2w ago | 0xrg38dho88o5ho8jerjoheoj848ojhejrhl8drlhlTop | Buy | No | 80¢ | $451 |
| 2w ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 76¢ | $152 |
| 3w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 1.2¢ | $5 |
| 3w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 0.1¢ | $0 |