Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $60.5K·Volume $549.9K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes14%No87%
Smart-money signal
What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:29Smart money exiting · $9,136 sold 24hcomputed 1h agoSmart money leans
No
87% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
98%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
87%price87%model est.*
Smart wallets
9
$17.1K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$4,704
72h +$3,617
Smart money entered78¢87¢at 07:29(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy15h agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$60.5K
Explanation
9 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $17.1K riding on it.
The price of 87% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 78¢; the price was 87¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Warning: wallets that backed "No" are now net selling it — followers usually exit when the wallets they follow do.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$4,704, +$3,617 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:29
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8h ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $30 |
| 13h ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $44 |
| 14h ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $13 |
| 15h ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $2 |
| 15h ago | 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $6,960 |
| 15h ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $6,960 |
| 15h ago | 0x709179E7392e59922Ab2D73cb1141698b30096f8-1773173619816Mid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $6,960 |
| 23h ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $2,077 |
| 23h ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 87¢ | $39 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $11 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $11 |
| 1d ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $168 |
| 1d ago | kekkoneMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $168 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $1,270 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $17 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 85¢ | $17 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $12 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $12 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $150 |
| 2d ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 84¢ | $13 |
| 3d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $146 |
| 3d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $59 |
| 3d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $11 |
| 3d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $123 |
| 3d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $2 |
| 3d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $57 |
| 3d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $40 |
| 4d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $25 |
| 4d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $10 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $86 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $430 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $15 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $14 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $20 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $15 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $12 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $12 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $12 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $860 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $516 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $1,613 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $12 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $12 |
| 5d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $12 |
| 6d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $20 |
| 6d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $215 |
| 6d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $48 |
| 6d ago | plumbisMid | Sell | No | 86¢ | $482 |
| 6d ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $1 |