Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Senate election by 0%-3%?
ActiveLiquidity $1,409·Volume $32.8K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes94%No6%
Smart money leans
Yes
94% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
94%price94%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$1,315 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$47
Smart money entered37¢94¢at 07:00(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$1,409
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,315 riding on it.
The price of 94% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 37¢; the price was 94¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $1,315 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$47 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:00
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $46 |
| 5d ago | title1Mid | Sell | No | 2.3¢ | $4 |
| 5d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 17¢ | $4 |
| 5d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 17¢ | $13 |
| 5d ago | thanksforplayinTop | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $449 |
| 5d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 18¢ | $18 |
| 5d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 78¢ | $117 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 22¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 22¢ | $0 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $17 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $13 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $21 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $17 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $86 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $13 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $37 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 11¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $17 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 91¢ | $58 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 9.5¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 8.8¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $19 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | Yes | 95¢ | $76 |
| 6d ago | title1Mid | Buy | No | 5.8¢ | $3 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | No | 6.8¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $36 |
| 6d ago | shiifooMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $42 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $14 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 22¢ | $13 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $2 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 25¢ | $166 |
| 1w ago | piepedMid | Buy | Yes | 17¢ | $172 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $73 |