Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-12 House election by 20%-25%?
ActiveLiquidity $11.8K·Volume $8,133·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
87%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$327 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered61¢98¢at 07:34(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$11.8K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $327 riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 61¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $327 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:34