Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $239.8K·Volume $3.2M·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
99%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
13
$322.0K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$33.4K
72h +$75.6K
Smart money entered93¢98¢at 20:19(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$239.8K
Explanation
13 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $322.0K riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 93¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$33.4K, +$75.6K over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 20:19
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $1,181 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $488 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $217 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $90 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $4,377 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $438 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $488 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $217 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $90 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $4,377 |
| 1h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $438 |
| 1h ago | 0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319Mid | Buy | No | 99¢ | $5,472 |
| 1h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $1,181 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $402 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $402 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $302 |
| 2h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $302 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $1,797 |
| 3h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $1,797 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $12 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $12 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |
| 5h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 99¢ | $49 |