Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?
ActiveLiquidity $33.9K·Volume $88.8K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes9%No91%
Smart money leans
Yes
8% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
77%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
8%price8%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$395 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered28¢7.5¢at 11:51Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy4d agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$33.9K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $395 riding on it.
The price of 8% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 28¢; the price was 7.5¢ at this snapshot.
Note: only $395 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:51
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 8.2¢ | $8 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 8.2¢ | $2 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 8.2¢ | $6 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.9¢ | $166 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 74¢ | $55 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $34 |
| 5d ago | AddarashMid | Buy | No | 69¢ | $129 |
| 5d ago | almost-neverMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $247 |
| 5d ago | almost-neverMid | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $108 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $125 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $146 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 68¢ | $100 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $28 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $51 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 70¢ | $106 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $72 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $5 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $36 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 71¢ | $15 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 73¢ | $111 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.9¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.9¢ | $26 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.9¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 79¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $30 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $5 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $70 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $31 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 20¢ | $80 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 9.9¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 70¢ | $17 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 15¢ | $15 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 82¢ | $82 |
| 1w ago | 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271Mid | Buy | No | 86¢ | $5 |
| 5w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 5w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 6w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $1 |
| 6w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $1 |
| 6w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 6w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $1 |