Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 6%-9%?
ActiveLiquidity $898·Volume $7,432·Ends Nov 3, 2026
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
No
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
79%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$887 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered80¢96¢at 06:37(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesended(Nov 3, 2026)Liquidity$898
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "No", with $887 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 80¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $887 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 06:37
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | AddarashMid | Buy | Yes | 6.8¢ | $10 |
| 1w ago | Albert 1953Mid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $887 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 8.8¢ | $55 |