Will Democrats win the Alaska Governor election and Republicans win the Alaska Senate election?
ActiveLiquidity $29.7K·Volume $11.5K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
No
99% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
99%price99%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$167 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$152
72h +$809
Smart money entered98¢99¢at 11:49(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy16h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$29.7K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $167 riding on it.
The price of 99% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 98¢; the price was 99¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $167 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$152, +$809 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 11:49
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $75 |
| 16h ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $75 |
| 2d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $325 |
| 2d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $325 |
| 5d ago | 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907eMid | Buy | Yes | 4.5¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $48 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $2 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 5.0¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $4 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $9 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 13¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $8 |
| 7w ago | longliveapplesTop | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $27 |
| 11w ago | HolyMoses7Mid | Buy | No | 72¢ | $38 |