Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?
ActiveLiquidity $16.2K·Volume $81.0K·Ends Nov 4, 2026
Price now:Yes100%No0%
Smart money leans
Yes
100% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
100%price100%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$1,605 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$29
72h +$726
Smart money entered50¢100¢at 22:10(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy6h agoResolvesended(Nov 4, 2026)Liquidity$16.2K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,605 riding on it.
The price of 100% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 50¢; the price was 100¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$29, +$726 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 22:10
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $6 |
| 6h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $6 |
| 7h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $8 |
| 7h ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $20 |
| 1d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $42 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $307 |
| 2d ago | mrworldwideTop | Buy | Yes | 99¢ | $264 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 37¢ | $453 |
| 1w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 63¢ | $35 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 34¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $286 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $39 |
| 1w ago | lava-lavaTop | Buy | Yes | 38¢ | $97 |
| 1w ago | RailcoolTop | Buy | Yes | 36¢ | $77 |
| 1w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $51 |
| 1w ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 64¢ | $208 |
| 1w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $22 |
| 1w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 62¢ | $35 |
| 1w ago | kaxel78Mid | Buy | No | 49¢ | $43 |
| 1w ago | klli27Mid | Buy | No | 47¢ | $46 |
| 1w ago | broskyeMid | Buy | No | 58¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | kaxel78Mid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $144 |
| 1w ago | broskyeMid | Buy | No | 66¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | broskyeMid | Buy | No | 67¢ | $7 |
| 7w ago | G.HchenTop | Sell | Yes | 33¢ | $5 |
| 8w ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $6 |