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aenews2

TopPolymarket
0x44c1dfe43260c94ed4f1d00de2e1f80fb113ebc1
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $153.1K
Quality score
0.54
Goodas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
+$136.5K
PnL 90d
+$86.8K
ROI 90d
+8%
on $1.1M deployed
Entry edge
53%
60 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$6.0M
3169 trades
Breadth 90d
256
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 14:05
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?No47.8K36¢88¢$42,059+$25.0K
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes39.6K39¢88¢$34,983+$19.7K
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes13.2K79¢99¢$13,001+$2,516
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes12.5K74¢97¢$12,055+$2,830
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes100.1K21¢11¢$11,010-$9,547
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Yes8.4K51¢77¢$6,449+$2,142
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Yes7.7K44¢74¢$5,736+$2,381
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?No4.5K79¢99¢$4,425+$892
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?No4.8K42¢73¢$3,508+$1,493
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Yes19.1K28¢12¢$2,193-$3,241
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes134.1K13¢1.5¢$2,079-$14.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes56.9K5.8¢3.0¢$1,707-$1,619
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes4.2K34¢30¢$1,288-$137
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes37.1K6.7¢3.1¢$1,151-$1,330
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?Yes1.5K64¢63¢$958-$23
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes981.859¢96¢$946+$371
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes12.4K40¢7.5¢$930-$4,082
Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes4.4K57¢19¢$848-$1,621
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Yes2.3K31¢30¢$699-$23
Will Karoline Leavitt be the next White House Press Secretary?No64694¢98¢$634+$24
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes28.9K24¢2.1¢$622-$6,234
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes8.8K35¢6.5¢$571-$2,493
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by December 31, 2026?Yes6.4K39¢7.5¢$479-$2,028
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Yes16.6K7.6¢2.1¢$357-$904
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Yes4.4K41¢6.0¢$261-$1,512
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes1.9K31¢13¢$251-$321
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?Yes323.170¢77¢$250+$25
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by December 31, 2026?Yes251.996¢96¢$242-$1
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2028?Yes793.717¢27¢$214+$81
Will 1 person leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?No20788¢98¢$202+$20
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes639.229¢31¢$195+$11
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?Yes23.2K11¢0.8¢$186-$2,387
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Yes3K13¢6.0¢$180-$214
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 30, 2026?Yes175.895¢94¢$166-$2
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Yes2.5K20¢5.5¢$135-$355
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?Yes12.2K8.2¢1.0¢$128-$871
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?Yes14355¢90¢$128+$49
EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?Yes885.416¢11¢$102-$38
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?Yes3.3K3.5¢3.0¢$101-$15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes2.9K67¢3.3¢$97-$1,882
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No10041¢96¢$96+$56
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Yes6K22¢1.5¢$89-$1,241
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?Yes3.3K8.4¢2.5¢$83-$196
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?Yes815.529¢10¢$82-$152
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?Yes80.799¢99¢$80+$0
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes99830¢7.5¢$75-$223
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by November 30, 2026?Yes76.890¢94¢$72+$3
X banned in any European country by December 31?Yes773.530¢9.0¢$70-$160
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by November 30?Yes134.146¢48¢$64+$3
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes3.7K18¢1.6¢$62-$627
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?Yes364.644¢16¢$57-$105
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?Yes86620¢6.5¢$56-$120
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes272.661¢21¢$56-$111
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes2.7K12¢2.0¢$55-$279
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?Yes1.6K2.3¢2.9¢$46+$10
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?Yes264.443¢17¢$45-$69
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026?Yes665.726¢6.5¢$43-$130
Another vessel struck in the Black Sea by November 15, 2026?Yes45.590¢89¢$41-$0
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?Yes7591¢51¢$38-$30
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?Yes2.7K6.7¢1.1¢$31-$148
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Yes973.66.0¢2.6¢$26-$33
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?Yes273.216¢9.0¢$25-$18
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?No21.971¢94¢$21+$5
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?Yes19.5100¢99¢$19-$0
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2028?Yes17.887¢95¢$17+$1
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027?Yes16015¢7.6¢$12-$12
Will Dana F. White Jr be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes1.2K3.6¢0.9¢$11-$33
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Yes252.570¢2.8¢$7-$168
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by December 31?Yes3045¢23¢$7-$7
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?Yes574¢87¢$4+$1
John Ratcliffe out as CIA Director by December 31?Yes26.621¢14¢$4-$2
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Yes4214¢5.9¢$2-$4
Will GameStop acquire eBay?Yes100.315¢2.0¢$2-$13
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?Yes23.817¢7.5¢$2-$2
Sudan civil war ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Yes1218¢11¢$1-$1
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?No0.588¢99¢$0+$0
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Yes536¢9.5¢$0-$1
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Yes19.832¢2.2¢$0-$6
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No0.373¢98¢$0+$0
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No0.379¢99¢$0+$0
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes0.368¢97¢$0+$0
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?No0.385¢86¢$0$0
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?No0.255¢98¢$0+$0
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?Yes815¢2.8¢$0-$1
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027?No0.282¢98¢$0+$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No0.283¢91¢$0+$0
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes0.484¢50¢$0-$0
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No0.295¢99¢$0+$0
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027?No0.293¢98¢$0+$0
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?No0.269¢100¢$0+$0
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?No0.264¢69¢$0+$0
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?No0.266¢94¢$0+$0
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No0.274¢83¢$0+$0
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?No0.195¢97¢$0+$0
Will GameStop acquire eBay?No0.182¢98¢$0+$0
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Yes0.134¢100¢$0+$0
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?No0.195¢98¢$0+$0
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No1.850¢6.4¢$0-$1
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No0.210¢50¢$0+$0
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No0.162¢76¢$0+$0
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes38.96.6¢0.2¢$0-$3
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?Yes0.134¢33¢$0-$0
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Yes0.25.0¢14¢$0+$0
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Yes0.115¢17¢$0+$0
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes0.218¢8.5¢$0-$0
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No0.135¢6.9¢$0-$0
Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027?Yes0.34.2¢2.3¢$0-$0
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?Yes0.22.0¢1.9¢$0-$0
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes0.325¢1.0¢$0-$0
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Yes0.23.8¢0.6¢$0-$0
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?No46.6K31¢0.0¢$0-$14.6K
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Yes50.7K31¢0.0¢$0-$15.9K
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Yes8.1K12¢0.0¢$0-$958
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes8.3K20¢0.0¢$0-$1,654
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?No9.2K19¢0.0¢$0-$1,708
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes35K20¢0.0¢$0-$6,928
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes180.4K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$2,556
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Yes18.512¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?Yes8.7K41¢0.0¢$0-$3,570
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes7.5K10¢0.0¢$0-$746
Will Donald Trump announce Jonathan Berry as the next United States Labor SecretaryYes6.4K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Donald Trump announce Patrick Pizzella as the next United States Labor SecretaryYes8.4K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Donald Trump announce Johnny C. Taylor Jr. as the next United States Labor SecretaryYes9.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Donald Trump announce Bryan Slater as the next United States Labor SecretaryYes5.9K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Donald Trump announce Brandon Williams as the next United States Labor SecretaryYes7.5K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Donald Trump announce Sean O'Brien as the next United States Labor SecretaryYes6.2K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Donald Trump announce Vince Micone as the next United States Labor SecretaryYes6.5K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Donald Trump announce Glenn Youngkin as the next United States Labor SecretaryYes5.5K0.0¢0.0¢$0$0
Will Matt Maasdam be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?Yes6.520¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will there be 2–3 North Korea tests in May 2026?Yes52.319¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in May 2026?Yes6313¢0.0¢$0-$8
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May?Yes2061¢0.0¢$0-$12
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes0.262¢0.0¢$0-$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes114.546¢0.0¢$0-$53
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?No0.378¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 75m?Yes30.3K20¢0.0¢$0-$6,052
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 85m?Yes65.5K20¢0.0¢$0-$13.1K
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 95m?Yes32.5K20¢0.0¢$0-$6,489
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 105m and 115m?Yes67.9K20¢0.0¢$0-$13.6K
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 13, 2026?No271.77.3¢0.0¢$0-$20
Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?Yes2048¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?No277.7K0.4¢0.0¢$0-$1,011
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?No0.225¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Yes1.9K27¢0.0¢$0-$517
Megaquake by June 30?Yes0.322¢0.0¢$0-$0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes11.5K24¢0.0¢$0-$2,759
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes527.5K8.4¢0.0¢$0-$44.5K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?Yes15.2K4.4¢0.0¢$0-$668
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?Yes575.540¢0.0¢$0-$232
Will Toby Doeden and Jon Hansen advance to the South Dakota Republican Primary runoff election?Yes107.214¢0.0¢$0-$15
Will Jon Hansen and Dusty Johnson advance to the South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff election?Yes107.214¢0.0¢$0-$15
Will Jon Hansen and Larry Rhoden advance to the South Dakota Governor Republican Primary runoff election?Yes107.214¢0.0¢$0-$15
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Yes132.87.9¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?Yes1.1K20¢0.0¢$0-$222
Will Comoros win on 2026-06-08?Yes10K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m?Yes1.1K15¢0.0¢$0-$168
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?No373.714¢0.0¢$0-$54
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?No0.252¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?No25.959¢0.0¢$0-$15
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?Yes1K16¢0.0¢$0-$167
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?Yes3.6K9.3¢0.0¢$0-$336
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?Yes6.6K42¢0.0¢$0-$2,779
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?No36363¢0.0¢$0-$229
Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?No6.7K32¢0.0¢$0-$2,145
Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 42m?Yes357.228¢0.0¢$0-$102
Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Yes18.5K1.9¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?No11228¢0.0¢$0-$31
Will Shenna Bellows be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Yes7.5K24¢0.0¢$0-$1,785
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No25.6K67¢0.0¢$0-$17.1K
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Yes11.6K30¢0.0¢$0-$3,464
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?No845.932¢0.0¢$0-$274
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?Yes8.884¢0.0¢$0-$7
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?Yes988¢0.0¢$0-$8
Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Yes1.2K30¢0.0¢$0-$367
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in May?Yes160.867¢0.0¢$0-$108
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?Yes72.743¢0.0¢$0-$31
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026?Yes535.956¢0.0¢$0-$300
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?No2802.7¢0.0¢$0-$8
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?No3K77¢0.0¢$0-$2,310
Will 50 senators vote "Yea" for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?No1585¢0.0¢$0-$13
Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 77m and 86m?Yes1015¢0.0¢$0-$2
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by July 2?Yes283.29.2¢0.0¢$0-$26
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?No2K7.0¢0.0¢$0-$139
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Yes3.3K93¢0.0¢$0-$3,030
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?Yes5239¢0.0¢$0-$21
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?Yes2.4K32¢0.0¢$0-$764
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?Yes340.53.2¢0.0¢$0-$11
Ebola case in the US by June 30?Yes11.3K28¢0.0¢$0-$3,203
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO?No9.9K45¢0.0¢$0-$4,477
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 5% and 10%?Yes49.921¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 0% and 5%?Yes2016¢0.0¢$0-$3
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes12.9K51¢0.0¢$0-$6,568
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?Yes2.2K12¢0.0¢$0-$270
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15?Yes926.619¢0.0¢$0-$179
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?No10.3K81¢0.0¢$0-$8,383
Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group AZEDI Esports564.518¢0.0¢$0-$102
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Day Box Office be at least 48m?No1.3K14¢0.0¢$0-$188
Will "The Odyssey" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 47m?Yes961.81.7¢0.0¢$0-$17
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?Yes312.612¢0.0¢$0-$38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes22.8K18¢0.0¢$0-$4,125
Will Donald Trump dance on June 24, 2026?No156.630¢0.0¢$0-$46
LA Mayoral Election: Spencer Pratt receives Over/Under 25%?Under205.137¢0.0¢$0-$77
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?Yes3.7K9.1¢0.0¢$0-$341
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes6.2K53¢0.0¢$0-$3,311
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes0.139¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will "Obsession" 7th Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11m?Yes169.19.5¢0.0¢$0-$16
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Yes42.1K58¢0.0¢$0-$24.3K
Will LeBron's next contract average $4M-$10M per year?Yes176.32.4¢0.0¢$0-$4
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 31?Yes40.137¢0.0¢$0-$15
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?Yes497.19.1¢0.0¢$0-$45
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes25.7K20¢0.0¢$0-$5,132
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?Yes2.6K6.8¢0.0¢$0-$178
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No15.9K12¢0.0¢$0-$1,924
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes126.6K4.6¢0.0¢$0-$5,788
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Yes80.7K12¢0.0¢$0-$9,551
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Yes89.911¢0.0¢$0-$10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?No8.9K5.0¢0.0¢$0-$445
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No122¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes0.222¢0.0¢$0-$0
Kash Patel out by July 31?Yes1.3K11¢0.0¢$0-$135
Kash Patel out by June 30?Yes19.5K34¢0.0¢$0-$6,575
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes69725¢0.0¢$0-$177
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes30.1K21¢0.0¢$0-$6,234
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Yes4.4K13¢0.0¢$0-$566
Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?No25.9K27¢0.0¢$0-$7,035
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerTeam Liquid511¢0.0¢$0-$1
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Liquid300K39¢0.0¢$0-$116.0K
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No120¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes54.7K19¢0.0¢$0-$10.2K
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Yes152.234¢0.0¢$0-$52
Will Russell Fry place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?Yes4120¢0.0¢$0-$8
Will Ralph Norman place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?No12555¢0.0¢$0-$69
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Yes23.5K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$23
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes0.241¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?No6.4K2.9¢0.0¢$0-$188
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?No29.1K0.7¢0.0¢$0-$206
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes0.321¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will Geno Ploeger be the runner-up of AGT Season 21?No20K0.1¢0.0¢$0-$20
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Chow Hang-tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Reporters Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will UNHCR win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will ICRC win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Hussam Abu Safiya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will World Central Kitchen win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Save the Children win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Sara Al-Saqqa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Mark Carney win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will the International Criminal Court win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Doctors Without Borders win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will the International Space Station win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will the Parents Circle – Families Forum win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will the International Association of Judges win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will the International Peace Research Association win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Yad Vashem win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Will Ilham Tohti win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes25.6K1.4¢0.0¢$0-$361
Iran leadership change by June 30?Yes0.337¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes0.17.9¢0.0¢$0-$0
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?No7.3K22¢0.0¢$0-$1,604
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta DreamGolden State Valkyries10.6K44¢0.0¢$0-$4,670
Golden State Valkyries vs. Atlanta DreamGolden State Valkyries17.5K44¢0.0¢$0-$7,616
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Yes26.9K26¢0.0¢$0-$7,005
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?No17.2K60¢0.0¢$0-$10.2K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No49.6K8.7¢0.0¢$0-$4,320
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes66.8K39¢0.0¢$0-$25.7K
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 13, 2026?Yes75.750¢0.0¢$0-$38
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes1.5K17¢0.0¢$0-$253
Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?Yes3.1K3.9¢0.0¢$0-$121
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?No4.4K5.0¢0.0¢$0-$221
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No16.1K24¢0.0¢$0-$3,913
Will AP call US House control by November 3, 11:59 PM?Yes168.558¢0.0¢$0-$98
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Yes15.8K8.0¢0.0¢$0-$1,264
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 25%?Yes905.912¢0.0¢$0-$109
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?Yes692.215¢0.0¢$0-$101
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?Yes53010.0¢0.0¢$0-$53
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?Yes516¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 19, 2026?Yes172.327¢0.0¢$0-$46
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No1.6K61¢0.0¢$0-$975
Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes346.815¢0.0¢$0-$52
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by August 31?Yes6.6K20¢0.0¢$0-$1,325
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?Yes2019¢0.0¢$0-$4
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by September 30?Yes40.329¢0.0¢$0-$12
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30?Yes51033¢0.0¢$0-$167
Ukraine strikes another tanker in the Caspian Sea by July 31, 2026?Yes292.214¢0.0¢$0-$40
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes60.566¢0.0¢$0-$40
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 6?Yes35.311¢0.0¢$0-$4
Jeanine Pirro out as D.C. U.S. Attorney by August 31?Yes1.2K22¢0.0¢$0-$257
Will Milo Yiannopoulos be deported by August 31, 2026?No153.0¢0.0¢$0-$0
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?Yes7199.9¢0.0¢$0-$71
Will Trump say "Gaza" in August?Yes53.183¢0.0¢$0-$44
Will Trump say "Tehran" in August?Yes184.984¢0.0¢$0-$155
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Yes1.9K29¢0.0¢$0-$559
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day overtake Star Wars: The Force Awakens by September 17, 2026?No29.85.0¢0.0¢$0-$1
Will Trump say "Alaska" this week?No750.92.9¢0.0¢$0-$22
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping by October 31?Yes57215¢0.0¢$0-$83
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 1?Yes219.234¢0.0¢$0-$76
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?Yes16.8K23¢0.0¢$0-$3,943
Will Trump say "Burger" in October?Yes2.5K11¢0.0¢$0-$262
Will Trump say "Ballroom" this week?Yes1K31¢0.0¢$0-$310
Will "Japan" be in the headlines this week?Yes5050¢0.0¢$0-$25
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?Yes2.7K37¢0.0¢$0-$985
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary?No5.5K31¢0.0¢$0-$1,701