China x Japan military clash before 2027?
ActiveLiquidity $56.5K·Volume $1.5M·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
94%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$38.6K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
-$14
72h -$26
Smart money entered92¢98¢at 02:08(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$56.5K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $38.6K riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been trimming this position (-$14, -$26 over 3 days) — a sign conviction may be fading.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:08
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15h ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $14 |
| 1d ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $6 |
| 1d ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | No | 98¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 96¢ | $2,630 |
| 3w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $117 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $31 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $55 |
| 4w ago | 4751346Mid | Sell | No | 97¢ | $205 |
| 5w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $10 |
| 5w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $10 |
| 5w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $3,229 |
| 5w ago | onekey02Mid | Buy | No | 95¢ | $10 |
| 7w ago | stupid22Mid | Sell | No | 95¢ | $120 |
| 8w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $1,880 |
| 9w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $2,820 |
| 9w ago | 4751346Mid | Buy | No | 94¢ | $1,000 |
| 9w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $930 |
| 9w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $851 |
| 9w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $109 |
| 9w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $2 |
| 9w ago | thoodrMid | Buy | No | 93¢ | $3,687 |
| 12w ago | D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC38935Mid | Buy | Yes | 7.0¢ | $35 |
| 12w ago | aenews2Mid | Buy | Yes | 7.6¢ | $1,261 |