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Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $1,370·Volume $56.3K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes16%No84%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:16computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
84% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
84%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
84%price84%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$853 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered67¢84¢at 07:16(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$1,370
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "No", with $853 riding on it.

The price of 84% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 67¢; the price was 84¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $853 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:16
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1w agoOptimus-MidSellNo80¢$116
5w agopakukudolphiMidBuyNo75¢$75
5w agopakukudolphiMidBuyNo75¢$75
5w agopakukudolphiMidBuyNo76¢$440
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo76¢$440
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo76¢$30
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo76¢$1
5w agoAlegrandebigMidSellNo77¢$8
6w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo78¢$78
6w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo77¢$2
6w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo73¢$73
6w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo72¢$47
7w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo71¢$2
7w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo71¢$14
7w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo72¢$7
7w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo71¢$71
7w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo72¢$7
7w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo72¢$14
9w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo79¢$0
9w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo79¢$79
9w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo80¢$79
9w agoAlegrandebigMidBuyNo80¢$1