| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 54.2K | 41¢ | 5.5¢ | $2,979 | -$19.3K |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10.2K | 41¢ | 27¢ | $2,791 | -$1,446 |
| Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 32K | 0.4¢ | 7.3¢ | $2,353 | +$2,225 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8? | No | 2.9K | 87¢ | 78¢ | $2,266 | -$236 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2K | 88¢ | 89¢ | $1,770 | +$10 |
| Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | No | 1.8K | 81¢ | 93¢ | $1,696 | +$233 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 3.3K | 31¢ | 46¢ | $1,502 | +$494 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 1.6K | 89¢ | 90¢ | $1,446 | +$18 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 1.7K | 83¢ | 85¢ | $1,426 | +$26 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4.5K | 41¢ | 32¢ | $1,416 | -$422 |
| Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31? | No | 1.3K | 53¢ | 88¢ | $1,134 | +$451 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? | No | 1.2K | 55¢ | 92¢ | $1,068 | +$426 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | No | 1.5K | 49¢ | 68¢ | $1,032 | +$285 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 6.6K | 31¢ | 7.5¢ | $494 | -$1,534 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 5.7K | 8.0¢ | 7.5¢ | $428 | -$29 |
| Will France pass a national budget by December 31? | Yes | 933.2 | 40¢ | 40¢ | $373 | -$3 |
| Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 3.8K | 13¢ | 8.5¢ | $327 | -$173 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | No | 7K | 8.9¢ | 4.6¢ | $326 | -$298 |
| Next James Bond announced by November 30, 2026? | Yes | 629.6 | 39¢ | 45¢ | $280 | +$35 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 300 | 84¢ | 93¢ | $278 | +$26 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 300 | 70¢ | 93¢ | $278 | +$68 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? | Yes | 300 | 49¢ | 87¢ | $260 | +$113 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 200 | 85¢ | 99¢ | $198 | +$29 |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms? | Yes | 200 | 93¢ | 95¢ | $190 | +$3 |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? | No | 192.9 | 77¢ | 96¢ | $186 | +$36 |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? | No | 202.5 | 60¢ | 91¢ | $183 | +$62 |
| Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? | Yes | 310 | 36¢ | 46¢ | $144 | +$34 |
| Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? | Yes | 1.4K | 55¢ | 9.5¢ | $134 | -$638 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | No | 130 | 76¢ | 98¢ | $127 | +$29 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 3.6K | 28¢ | 3.5¢ | $126 | -$882 |
| Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026? | No | 140 | 53¢ | 86¢ | $120 | +$46 |
| Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026? | No | 163.3 | 68¢ | 73¢ | $118 | +$7 |
| US congress stock trading ban before 2027? | Yes | 1.9K | 24¢ | 5.6¢ | $109 | -$353 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.6K | 21¢ | 3.9¢ | $101 | -$430 |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | Yes | 1.1K | 14¢ | 9.5¢ | $100 | -$47 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | No | 100 | 84¢ | 99¢ | $99 | +$15 |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 100 | 79¢ | 98¢ | $98 | +$19 |
| Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by December 31? | No | 121 | 54¢ | 78¢ | $95 | +$30 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1K | 5.2¢ | 9.4¢ | $95 | +$43 |
| Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 91¢ | 92¢ | $92 | +$1 |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 15? | Yes | 3.6K | 7.0¢ | 2.5¢ | $90 | -$161 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 851.5 | 40¢ | 11¢ | $89 | -$249 |
| Will Édouard Philippe, but not Gabriel Attal, be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 159.3 | 75¢ | 50¢ | $79 | -$40 |
| Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.3K | 19¢ | 3.1¢ | $71 | -$373 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | Yes | 626.3 | 35¢ | 10¢ | $66 | -$153 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027? | Yes | 466 | 22¢ | 13¢ | $63 | -$41 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027? | Yes | 1.7K | 25¢ | 3.5¢ | $60 | -$362 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 350 | 36¢ | 17¢ | $58 | -$70 |
| Michael Barr officially out as Fed Governor by December 31? | Yes | 1K | 26¢ | 5.5¢ | $57 | -$209 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | Yes | 1K | 29¢ | 5.5¢ | $56 | -$235 |
| SCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31? | No | 54.5 | 45¢ | 98¢ | $53 | +$29 |
| French presidential election delayed? | No | 57.1 | 91¢ | 93¢ | $53 | +$1 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027? | Yes | 1.6K | 13¢ | 3.3¢ | $52 | -$151 |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | Yes | 1.3K | 18¢ | 3.8¢ | $51 | -$191 |
| Macron out by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3.5K | 3.9¢ | 1.2¢ | $43 | -$92 |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | Yes | 500 | 50¢ | 8.5¢ | $42 | -$205 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.1K | 29¢ | 3.3¢ | $38 | -$288 |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by March 31, 2027? | Yes | 66.1 | 22¢ | 50¢ | $33 | +$19 |
| Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 5K | 0.8¢ | 0.6¢ | $32 | -$8 |
| Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by March 31, 2027? | No | 33.3 | 85¢ | 96¢ | $32 | +$4 |
| Will no one dissent the January Fed decision? | No | 80.1 | 63¢ | 40¢ | $32 | -$19 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 200 | 40¢ | 16¢ | $31 | -$49 |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? | Yes | 970.2 | 11¢ | 3.0¢ | $30 | -$77 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 200 | 11¢ | 15¢ | $29 | +$7 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? | Yes | 342.1 | 24¢ | 8.5¢ | $29 | -$53 |
| Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Yes | 200 | 15¢ | 14¢ | $27 | -$3 |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by November 30? | Yes | 100 | 33¢ | 27¢ | $27 | -$7 |
| Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 140 | 57¢ | 19¢ | $26 | -$53 |
| Putin visits US by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 200 | 8.0¢ | 13¢ | $26 | +$10 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 1K | 2.0¢ | 2.5¢ | $25 | +$5 |
| Mike Johnson out as Speaker by December 31? | Yes | 206.2 | 23¢ | 12¢ | $24 | -$24 |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by December 31? | Yes | 300 | 20¢ | 7.5¢ | $23 | -$38 |
| US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? | Yes | 340 | 19¢ | 6.5¢ | $22 | -$43 |
| Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 100 | 21¢ | 22¢ | $22 | +$1 |
| Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | No | 110 | 22¢ | 16¢ | $18 | -$6 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes | 620 | 16¢ | 2.7¢ | $17 | -$82 |
| Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027? | Yes | 1.1K | 8.3¢ | 1.5¢ | $16 | -$76 |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 271 | 4.0¢ | 4.7¢ | $13 | +$2 |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | Yes | 620.1 | 32¢ | 2.0¢ | $12 | -$183 |
| Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? | Yes | 105 | 20¢ | 11¢ | $11 | -$10 |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 649.1 | 14¢ | 1.7¢ | $11 | -$80 |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026? | No | 9.6 | 20¢ | 97¢ | $9 | +$7 |
| Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2.4K | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $9 | -$10 |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | Yes | 500 | 9.0¢ | 1.5¢ | $8 | -$38 |
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | Yes | 200 | 21¢ | 3.3¢ | $7 | -$36 |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 53¢ | 6.2¢ | $6 | -$47 |
| Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 144.6 | 15¢ | 3.9¢ | $6 | -$16 |
| Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 201.1 | 10.0¢ | 2.4¢ | $5 | -$15 |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in OpenAI? | Yes | 43.2 | 20¢ | 9.5¢ | $4 | -$5 |
| US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 24¢ | 3.5¢ | $4 | -$20 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | Yes | 111.8 | 51¢ | 2.9¢ | $3 | -$54 |
| Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank? | Yes | 1.4 | 33¢ | 77¢ | $1 | +$1 |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? | Yes | 300 | 17¢ | 0.2¢ | $1 | -$50 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? | Yes | 300 | 4.4¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$13 |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 0.1 | 28¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 1.5K | 0.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$12 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? | Yes | 504 | 3.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$20 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | Yes | 289 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$97 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 18? | Yes | 2.1K | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$318 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | No | 2.1K | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$662 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 6.9K | 45¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3,115 |
| Will Warsh say "Iran" during July Press Conference? | Yes | 100 | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during July Press Conference? | Yes | 21 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? | Yes | 267.2 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$40 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | Yes | 262.3 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$123 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? | Yes | 496.5 | 61¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$303 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 1.2K | 66¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$804 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 773 | 66¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$510 |
| Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? | No | 750.4 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? | Yes | 200 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$14 |
| Israel strikes Iran by October 31? | Yes | 916.8 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$224 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 221.8 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$60 |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? | Yes | 858.3 | 3.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$31 |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | Yes | 400 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$201 |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | Yes | 400 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$48 |
| US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? | Yes | 2K | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$100 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$27 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026? | Yes | 1.2K | 5.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 100 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$52 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | Yes | 500 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$95 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | No | 200 | 8.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 2.2K | 39¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$871 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$20 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? | Yes | 28.7K | 0.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$29 |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 3.3K | 1.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$43 |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | Yes | 357.8 | 9.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$33 |
| Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | Yes | 100 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | Yes | 845.1 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$152 |
| Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? | No | 160 | 61¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$98 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 200 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$93 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 64¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$96 |
| England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time? | No | 100 | 80¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$80 |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21? | Yes | 490.9 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$54 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 6? | No | 250 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$12 |
| U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? | Yes | 400 | 38¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$150 |
| U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026? | No | 509 | 48¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$245 |
| U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? | No | 184 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$33 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | Yes | 759.5 | 57¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$433 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | Yes | 1.4K | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$246 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? | Yes | 1.8K | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$310 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? | Yes | 550 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$144 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | Yes | 200 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$53 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 400 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$52 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | Yes | 300 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$36 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? | Yes | 55.3 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$17 |
| Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026? | Yes | 848 | 6.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$58 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 1.8K | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$468 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 460.9 | 39¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$181 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | Yes | 2.2K | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$351 |
| Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? | Yes | 1.5K | 4.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$72 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | Yes | 800 | 9.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$73 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? | Yes | 2.3K | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$460 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | Yes | 1.8K | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$820 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 425.5 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$201 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20? | Yes | 100 | 46¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$46 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | Yes | 1K | 4.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$42 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Yes | 300 | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$111 |
| Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026? | No | 500 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$138 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of August 10 2026? | Yes | 275 | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | $0 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026? | Yes | 275 | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | $0 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? | Yes | 426 | 9.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$41 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? | Yes | 3K | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$306 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? | Yes | 1.1K | 2.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$31 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 5? | Yes | 420 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$21 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 74¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$74 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? | Yes | 533 | 4.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? | No | 100 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$19 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 600 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$60 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Yes | 271.8 | 38¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$103 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 199.1 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$100 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 50 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$18 |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 673 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$159 |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Yes | 400 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$28 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 480 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$24 |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 10 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26? | Yes | 225 | 8.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$20 |
| Will FISA Section 702 be reauthorized by July 31? | Yes | 45.6 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in May? | Yes | 814.3 | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? | No | 200 | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$74 |
| Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? | No | 876 | 3.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$29 |
| Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7? | No | 200 | 86¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$172 |
| Will Trump say "Midnight Hammer" during call with Service Members on November 27? | Yes | 58 | 39¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more? | Yes | 200 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more? | Yes | 600 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$36 |
| Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | Yes | 1.4K | 2.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$29 |
| Will Sydney Sweeney be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors? | Yes | 150 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$36 |
| Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 1K | 2.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13? | No | 70 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$17 |
| Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13? | No | 826.2 | 78¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$644 |
| Will Trump say "8 Wars" during Egypt summit? | Yes | 50 | 74¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$37 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China by November 30? | No | 100 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$25 |
| Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in November? | Yes | 267 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$39 |
| Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7? | Yes | 93.7 | 68¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$64 |
| Will Trump say "Nobel" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7? | Yes | 83.7 | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$19 |
| Will Donald Trump say "Abraham Accords" during Syria President events on November 10? | Yes | 190 | 33¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will Leavitt say "Our Nation's Capital" during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 6.1 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" or "Venezuela" 15+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2? | Yes | 74 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$38 |
| Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | No | 100 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$32 |
| Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.4%? | Yes | 100 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$31 |
| Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? | Yes | 128.2 | 86¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$110 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026? | No | 100 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7 |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 246 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$54 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July? | Yes | 594.9 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$82 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July? | No | 94.1 | 81¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$76 |
| Will Trump say "Brazil" or "Bolsonaro" during his Squawk Box appearance on August 5? | Yes | 63.3 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$19 |
| Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in September? | Yes | 1.9 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Canada in October? | Yes | 465.8 | 9.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$43 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in October? | Yes | 30 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in January? | Yes | 50 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7 |
| Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January? | Yes | 166 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$32 |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in August? | Yes | 6.6 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? | Yes | 155.1 | 6.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will Russia join the Board of Peace? | Yes | 60 | 63¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$38 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? | Yes | 100 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$13 |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican? | Yes | 100 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of February 2026? | No | 23.7 | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$13 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? | Yes | 7.9K | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$79 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 250 | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$93 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 175 | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$102 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? | Yes | 275 | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$149 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March? | No | 406 | 54¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$218 |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? | Yes | 507.6 | 0.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will Trump say "Twin Towers" during 9-11 memorial event? | Yes | 40 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$14 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13? | Yes | 6.5K | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$748 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? | Yes | 350 | 44¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$154 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? | Yes | 300 | 5.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | No | 500 | 8.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$42 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? | No | 904 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$90 |
| Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on November 12? | Yes | 476.5 | 46¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$217 |
| Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025? | No | 75 | 53¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$40 |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31? | Yes | 605.3 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$102 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | No | 200 | 70¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$140 |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by March 31, 2026? | No | 200 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$24 |
| Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? | Yes | 200 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$30 |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25? | Yes | 664.6 | 1.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$12 |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | Yes | 200 | 5.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$11 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET | Up | 400 | 48¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$192 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 7? | No | 5K | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$496 |
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026? | Yes | 1.2K | 46¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$546 |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 251.4 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$45 |
| Will the US not strike another country before 2027? | Yes | 1K | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January? | Yes | 135 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$15 |
| Will Darren Jones be in the Burnham cabinet? | Yes | 100 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| Will James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet? | Yes | 50 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$15 |
| Will Doug Collins be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025? | Yes | 1.3K | 1.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$17 |
| Will no vote occur on a new funding bill by October 31? | No | 122 | 87¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$106 |
| Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026? | No | 200 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$60 |
| Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by June 30, 2026? | No | 400 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$69 |
| Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? | Yes | 150 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$27 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | Yes | 325.9 | 59¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$192 |
| Todd Blanche confirmed as Attorney General by December 31? | No | 173.7 | 5.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will Trump say "Winston" or "Churchill" during King Charles visit? | No | 2.4K | 1.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$24 |
| Will there be no new Prime Minister of France? | Yes | 221.4 | 8.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$19 |
| Will Olivier Faure be the next Prime Minister of France? | Yes | 302.1 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$44 |
| Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? | Yes | 100 | 6.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7 |
| Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8? | No | 364.3 | 39¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$142 |
| Will Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan? | No | 569 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$40 |
| Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 160.9 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$30 |
| Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by April 30? | Yes | 50 | 43¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$22 |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 220 | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$50 |
| Will between 217 and 218 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | Yes | 15.8 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will between 219 and 220 U.S. House members vote "Yea" on the next funding bill by November 30? | Yes | 105 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16 |
| ECB rate hike in 2026? | No | 505 | 55¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$278 |
| Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? | Yes | 908.3 | 1.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$15 |
| Will the Fed cut-pause-pause in 2025? | Yes | 250 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$25 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference? | No | 309.9 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$43 |
| Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during December press conference? | Yes | 200 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$28 |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 30 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 975 | 0.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 29? | No | 300 | 21¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$64 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 4? | No | 402.9 | 2.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$11 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 30? | No | 110.4 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$45 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 26-1? | Yes | 300 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$57 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 28? | Yes | 484.5 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$133 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 18? | No | 553 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$50 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? | Yes | 2.8K | 7.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$195 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 16? | No | 259 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$28 |
| US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? | Yes | 245.1 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$47 |
| Will annual inflation increase by between 36% and 38.9% in December? | Yes | 163.8 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will annual inflation increase by 39% or higher in December? | Yes | 171 | 5.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9 |
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2025 meeting? | Yes | 674 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$97 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the December meeting? | Yes | 500 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$30 |
| Will the federal government be shut down for 4–9 days in 2025? | Yes | 250 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$30 |
| Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30? | Yes | 320 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$131 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of July 13 2026? | No | 100 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$25 |
| 100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? | Yes | 1.3K | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$169 |
| Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? | No | 511.3 | 3.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$19 |
| Israel strikes Iran before 2026? | Yes | 1.7K | 3.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$66 |
| Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during address to UN General Assembly on September 23? | No | 100 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$16 |
| Grokipedia released by October 31? | No | 200 | 79¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$158 |
| Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30? | Yes | 150 | 64¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$96 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in December? | Yes | 364.1 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$91 |
| Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31? | Yes | 368.1 | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$136 |
| Crude Oil all time high by March 31? | Yes | 70.2 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$11 |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September? | Yes | 666 | 83¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$552 |
| Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30? | Yes | 188 | 53¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$99 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 12? | Yes | 807.6 | 5.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$44 |
| Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be greater than 2%? | No | 40 | 78¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$31 |
| Will Trump and Zelenskyy not shake hands? | Yes | 300 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$24 |
| Will Donald Trump endorse John Cornyn for the Texas Republican Senate primary by March 2, 2026? | Yes | 187.5 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$59 |
| Megaquake in 2025? | No | 50 | 48¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$24 |
| Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference? | Yes | 50 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$17 |
| Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference? | Yes | 361.9 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$105 |
| Israeli ground operation against Fordow before August? | Yes | 311.6 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$28 |
| Ghislaine Maxwell released from custody in 2025? | Yes | 1.2K | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$97 |
| Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31? | Yes | 74 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett to replace Kugler? | Yes | 262.5 | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$60 |
| Will the Texas House pass HB 4 by August 19? | Yes | 250 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$28 |
| Kash Patel out by September 30? | Yes | 399 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$24 |
| Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 100 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2026? | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| James Comey in jail in 2025? | Yes | 100 | 8.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$8 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during events with President of Finland on Oct 9? | No | 195 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$67 |
| Will Trump say "Golf" during events with President of Finland on Oct 9? | Yes | 370 | 40¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$149 |
| Will Keir Starmer say "Green" during the next Prime Minister's Questions? | Yes | 9 | 71¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6 |
| Will NVIDIA say "Trump" during earnings call? | Yes | 196.5 | 44¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$87 |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | Yes | 200 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$52 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 19? | Yes | 180 | 39¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$70 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | No | 200 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$50 |
| Will any European country expel an Israeli ambassador by March 31? | Yes | 810.7 | 7.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$59 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 4? | Up | 94.9 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 1? | Up | 600 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$18 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8? | Up | 4.5K | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$621 |
| Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? | No | 1.7K | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$374 |
| US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? | Yes | 447.1 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$143 |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | Yes | 150 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$12 |
| Will the Vatican host Russia-Ukraine peace talks before September? | Yes | 349 | 1.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Thailand strikes Cambodia by August 31? | Yes | 1K | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$83 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine in 2025? | Yes | 543.6 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$109 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025? | Yes | 188.5 | 76¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$144 |
| Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first? | Zelenskyy | 180 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$32 |
| Will Trump say "Biden" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18? | Yes | 238.2 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$68 |
| Will Trump say "Hottest Country" during Zelensky events on August 18? | Yes | 60 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$22 |
| Will Powell say "Summer" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22? | Yes | 23.7 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7 |
| Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the next funding bill? | Yes | 631.8 | 72¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$452 |
| Trump declares another national emergency by December 31? | Yes | 977.3 | 8.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$83 |
| Will Trump visit Gaza by Oct 31? | Yes | 100 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$14 |
| DAX (DAX) Up or Down on October 17? | Up | 525 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$135 |
| Panick in the White House | Yes | 50 | 10¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31? | Yes | 28.5 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 30? | Yes | 100 | 86¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$86 |
| Will Trump say "Maduro" or "Khamenei" during WEF Address on January 21? | Yes | 12.6 | 58¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7 |
| Will Trump say "Golden Age of America" during WEF Address on January 21? | Yes | 118 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$57 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 28? | No | 89 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$20 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 16? | Down | 600 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$188 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on May 27? | Yes | 151.1 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 27? | Yes | 32.5 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6 |
| US national Solana reserve in 2025? | Yes | 2.1K | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$318 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025? | Yes | 218.5 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$63 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume before August? | Yes | 195 | 62¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$121 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1? | Yes | 985.2 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$404 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by September 5? | Yes | 69.9 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$18 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition | Yes | 15 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will JD Vance say Woke during the Charlie Kirk Show on Monday September 15? | Yes | 105 | 63¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$66 |
| Will JD Vance say Kash/Patel during the Charlie Kirk Show on Monday September 15? | Yes | 22.2 | 46¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: France Edition | Yes | 294.9 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$106 |
| Will Bad Bunny say "Taylor" or "Swift" during SNL appearance on October 4? | Yes | 100 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7 |
| Will any of the stolen Louvre jewels be returned by December 31? | Yes | 250 | 44¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$110 |
| Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31? | Yes | 1.4 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Trump win FIFA Peace Prize? | No | 128 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$12 |
| Andrii Yermak arrested by December 31? | Yes | 200 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$36 |
| Will Trump release the sanctioned oil tanker by December 31? | Yes | 100 | 5.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in January 2026? | No | 600 | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$54 |
| Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in January 2026? | Yes | 200 | 4.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will Trump disparage Zelenskyy on Sunday? | Yes | 100 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$20 |
| U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? | Yes | 1.1K | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$365 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by February 28, 2026? | No | 600 | 2.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$13 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? | Down | 818.6 | 66¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$540 |
| Bayrou out as French PM by September 30? | No | 200 | 3.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$8 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting? | Yes | 144.4 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$19 |
| 10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday? | Yes | 163 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$31 |
| Will Trump say "Federalize" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | Yes | 117.3 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$36 |
| Will Trump say "National Guard" during the DC Crime Press Conference? | No | 261 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$35 |
| Israel strikes Iran by September 30? | Yes | 553.3 | 3.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$20 |
| Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France? | Yes | 160.1 | 5.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his announcement on September 2? | Yes | 100 | 4.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will Trump say "God" 10+ times during Museum of the Bible speech on September 8? | No | 539.5 | 6.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$34 |
| Will Trump say "Catholic" or "Muslim" during Museum of the Bible speech on September 8? | No | 40 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$12 |
| Next French confidence vote passes? | Yes | 150 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$17 |
| Israel strikes 3 different countries by September 30? | Yes | 75 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$38 |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? | Yes | 50 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6 |
| Will Sam Altman say "Browser" during TBPN appearance on October 10? | Yes | 100 | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$37 |
| Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files? | No | 384.3 | 30¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$116 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? | Yes | 200 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$29 |
| Will Vanke default on debt by December 31? | Yes | 100 | 45¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$45 |
| Will Trump say "Somalia" or "Somalian" during NewsNation interview? | Yes | 4.1 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? | Yes | 672.4 | 4.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$29 |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 400 | 90¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$360 |
| Will Trump say "Vance" or "Rubio" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 100 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$35 |
| Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case by July 31? | Yes | 433.9 | 2.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$11 |
| Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in August? | Yes | 40 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 5-11? | No | 1.2K | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$172 |
| More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30? | Yes | 340.4 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$59 |
| French confidence vote fails? | No | 100 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR? | Yes | 1K | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$239 |
| Will Trump visit Israel by October 15? | No | 3K | 7.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$230 |
| Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 10? | Yes | 1K | 4.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$49 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by November 30? | Yes | 448.1 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$76 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by December 31? | Yes | 10.8 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31? | Yes | 104.4 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$30 |
| Will Trump say "TikTok" or "Tik Tok" during the announcement on December 19? | Yes | 200 | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$36 |
| US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31? | Yes | 120 | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$13 |
| Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | No | 100 | 40¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$40 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 6? | Down | 867.5 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 8? | Yes | 2.1K | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$510 |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025? | Yes | 525 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$104 |
| US kicks trans members out of military before August? | Yes | 50 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$11 |
| July jobs report prints negative? | Yes | 351 | 1.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025? | Yes | 120.6 | 19¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Will Trump say "Nord Stream" or "Pipeline" during conference with Putin on August 15? | Yes | 50 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$18 |
| Will Trump say "Crimea" during conference with Putin on August 15? | Yes | 70 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$29 |
| Will Trump say "Secondary tariff" or "Sanction" during conference with Putin on August 15? | Yes | 100 | 65¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$65 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $109,500 on August 29 at 12PM ET? | Yes | 150 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$36 |
| Next French Prime Minister appointed by September 19? | No | 60 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7 |
| Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 190 | 5.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 11? | Yes | 318.5 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$90 |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 14? | Yes | 508.3 | 48¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$246 |
| Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1? | Yes | 73 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$19 |
| US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31? | Yes | 200 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$44 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Iran Strike Edition | No | 55 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$11 |
| Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? | Yes | 100 | 51¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$51 |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 31? | Yes | 453.2 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$77 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET | Up | 51.5 | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | Yes | 611.7 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$73 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before August? | Yes | 100 | 37¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$37 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in August? | Yes | 201 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$40 |
| Will Texas enact a redistricting law by August 22? | Yes | 470.2 | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$158 |
| OpenAI browser by October 31? | No | 3.4K | 6.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$226 |
| Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? | Yes | 181.8 | 45¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$82 |
| Will courts block Trump's 100k H1b by September 30? | Yes | 175 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$44 |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31? | Yes | 75 | 39¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$29 |
| 'No change' or '25 bps cut' favored for Fed decision in January on December 10? | 25 bps cut | 160 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$19 |
| Kristi Noem out as Secretary of Homeland Security by December 12? | Yes | 342.1 | 1.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6 |
| Will Uranium (USD/LBS) hit $85 (LOW) by end of February? | Yes | 100 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$17 |
| Press Briefing Bingo | Yes | 100 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$29 |
| New Trump executive order to restrict voting by March 31? | No | 33.6 | 64¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$22 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 20? | Up | 200 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? | No | 1.3K | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$477 |
| Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31? | No | 100 | 2.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 20? | No | 100 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$35 |
| 30% EU tariff in effect by August 1? | Yes | 388.4 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$57 |
| Macron out by October 31, 2025? | Yes | 230 | 6.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$14 |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 30 | 32¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Will Russia capture Sumy before October? | Yes | 1.1K | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$91 |
| U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 374.3 | 50¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$188 |
| French election called by October 31? | Yes | 1.8K | 5.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$101 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.7K | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$578 |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? | Yes | 474.4 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$245 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31? | Yes | 517.5 | 40¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$207 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | No | 4.4K | 1.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$65 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | No | 1.5K | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$229 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | No | 400 | 3.1¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$12 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 38.3 | 33¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$13 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 8.2K | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3,875 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026? | Yes | 4.7K | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,309 |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? | Yes | 5.6K | 1.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$100 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | Yes | 900 | 6.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$61 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 220 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$54 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | Yes | 7.4K | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,637 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | Yes | 300 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$59 |
| Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? | Yes | 267 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$69 |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 9.9K | 33¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3,263 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 2.2K | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$484 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | Yes | 1.5K | 4.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$65 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat? | Yes | 2.4K | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$686 |
| Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat? | Yes | 662.9 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$93 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 47¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$47 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | Yes | 272.4 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$84 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | Yes | 100 | 61¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$61 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? | Yes | 120 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$42 |
| Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? | Yes | 300 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$72 |
| Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Yes | 1K | 0.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 24, 2026? | Yes | 926.6 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$141 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) | Yes | 917.7 | 49¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$447 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 314.6 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$31 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the FL-16 House seat? | Yes | 200 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$34 |
| Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in August? | Yes | 100 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$7 |
| Will Doug Burgum be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 125 | 1.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Sagal Abdi-Wali win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? | No | 250 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$65 |
| Will no one dissent the September Fed decision? | No | 100 | 81¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$81 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat? | Yes | 200 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$54 |
| Will Trump not announce his AI czar pick by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.1K | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$276 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | 666 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$87 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? | Yes | 854.6 | 3.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$31 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat? | Yes | 200 | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$40 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 330 | 16¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$53 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | Yes | 26K | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$9,128 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | Yes | 1K | 2.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | Yes | 2.9K | 2.2¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$63 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | Yes | 1K | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$90 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 3.7K | 5.4¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$198 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 501.8 | 48¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$241 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | Yes | 1K | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$359 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? | Yes | 200 | 31¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$62 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September? | Yes | 2.5K | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$510 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15? | Yes | 222.3 | 1.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | Yes | 6.3K | 68¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4,301 |
| Trump renames AI by September 30? | No | 1.6K | 59¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$921 |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | Yes | 130 | 2.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$4 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | No | 4.9K | 2.6¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$128 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24? | No | 1.6K | 8.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$129 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | No | 484.9 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$120 |
| Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 23? | No | 60 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$10 |
| Paris curfew by October 19? | No | 60 | 61¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$37 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Yes | 400 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$112 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | Yes | 1.6K | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$295 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | Yes | 1.8K | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$53 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? | Yes | 467.5 | 33¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$154 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | Yes | 300 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$86 |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | Yes | 536 | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$72 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | Yes | 1.6K | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$210 |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30? | Yes | 300 | 22¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$66 |
| Erling Haaland: 1+ shots | Yes | 315 | 64¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$200 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | Yes | 200 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$35 |
| Trump tries to fire Lisa Cook by September 30? | Yes | 100 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? | No | 290 | 36¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$104 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | 2.4K | 4.7¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$112 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Yes | 1.8K | 9.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$158 |
| Bank of England rate hike in 2026? | No | 269.9 | 56¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$150 |
| Will Trump say "Boeing" in September? | Yes | 100 | 52¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$52 |
| Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? | Yes | 209.4 | 75¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$158 |
| Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | Yes | 223.8 | 44¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$97 |
| EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31? | No | 465 | 41¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$189 |
| Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | Yes | 304.1 | 46¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$139 |
| Lula or Bolsonaro favored on October 5? | Lula | 1.9K | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$280 |
| Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31? | Yes | 100 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$12 |
| Will Trump name an AI czar by October 2, 2026? | Yes | 414.2 | 33¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$136 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | Yes | 1.2K | 18¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$216 |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17? | Yes | 2.1K | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$305 |
| Will Warsh’s remarks not air? | Yes | 100 | 1.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$2 |
| Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 150 | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| Will Andy Burnham say "Starmer" during the next PMQ? | Yes | 316 | 24¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$75 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 14? | Up | 900 | 14¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$126 |
| Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | Yes | 250 | 35¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$88 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 3K | 13¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$385 |