Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?
ActiveLiquidity $47.4K·Volume $278.6K·Ends Dec 1, 2026
Price now:Yes10%No90%
Smart money leans
No
90% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
90%price90%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$3,456 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$39
72h +$1,482
Smart money entered82¢90¢at Nov 10, 23:58(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 20d(Dec 1, 2026)Liquidity$47.4K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $3,456 riding on it.
The price of 90% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 90¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$39, +$1,482 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of Nov 10, 23:58
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $3 |
| 7h ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $3 |
| 7h ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $16 |
| 7h ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $267 |
| 7h ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $55 |
| 7h ago | xxNyxMid | Sell | No | 88¢ | $177 |
| 7h ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 11¢ | $14 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $81 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $81 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 87¢ | $9 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $93 |
| 1d ago | AlegrandebigMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $93 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | Yes | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | Yes | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $74 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $74 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Buy | Yes | 14¢ | $1 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | Yes | 17¢ | $75 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | Yes | 17¢ | $75 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $23 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $19 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $23 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $120 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | Yes | 18¢ | $101 |
| 1d ago | 1nvoker1Mid | Sell | Yes | 18¢ | $101 |
| 1d ago | xxNyxMid | Buy | No | 81¢ | $120 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 16¢ | $79 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 16¢ | $234 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $54 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $73 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $73 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $29 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $54 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $73 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $73 |
| 1d ago | nmnrTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $29 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $8 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $18 |
| 1d ago | RdogTestTop | Buy | No | 86¢ | $18 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 12¢ | $0 |