Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the December 2026 meeting?
ActiveLiquidity $7,587·Volume $30.4K·Ends Dec 17, 2026
Price now:Yes91%No9%
Smart money leans
Yes
91% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
91%price91%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$335 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered84¢91¢at 00:41(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 36d(Dec 17, 2026)Liquidity$7,587
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $335 riding on it.
The price of 91% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 84¢; the price was 91¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $335 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:41
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $335 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | Yes | 79¢ | $315 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $308 |