Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $87.2K·Volume $318.5K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
No
98% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
98%price98%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$32.9K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$4,691
Smart money entered92¢98¢at 22:39(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy1d agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$87.2K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "No", with $32.9K riding on it.
The price of 98% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 92¢; the price was 98¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $32.9K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$4,691 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 22:39
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $326 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $2,173 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $2,173 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $13,209 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 98¢ | $39 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $904 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 97¢ | $445 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | No | 96¢ | $470 |
| 1w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Sell | No | 95¢ | $416 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $38 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $2 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $5 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $2 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 7w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 8w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $10 |
| 9w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $4 |
| 9w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $106 |
| 9w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $2 |
| 9w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 9w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $1 |
| 9w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $5 |
| 9w ago | thoodrTop | Sell | No | 94¢ | $169 |
| 11w ago | Tenebrus7Top | Buy | No | 93¢ | $407 |