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Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $20.2K·Volume $295.6K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes5%No95%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 07:32computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
No
95% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
73%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
95%price95%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$1,473 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered86¢95¢at 07:32(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$20.2K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "No", with $1,473 riding on it.

The price of 95% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 86¢; the price was 95¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $1,473 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of 07:32
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
3d ago4751346MidSellNo97¢$18
3d ago4751346MidSellNo95¢$95
3d ago4751346MidSellNo95¢$109
3d ago4751346MidSellNo96¢$96
3d ago4751346MidSellNo97¢$79
4d ago4751346MidSellNo95¢$5
4d ago4751346MidSellNo95¢$2
5d ago4751346MidSellNo95¢$26
6d ago4751346MidSellNo95¢$19
6d ago4751346MidSellNo95¢$49
1w ago4751346MidSellNo94¢$94
1w agoStarMasterMidSellNo92¢$462
3w ago4751346MidBuyNo93¢$130
4w ago4751346MidBuyNo93¢$93
4w ago4751346MidBuyNo93¢$149
4w ago4751346MidBuyNo91¢$1
4w ago4751346MidSellNo93¢$233
4w ago4751346MidBuyNo91¢$182
4w ago4751346MidSellNo93¢$93
6w ago4751346MidSellNo90¢$27
8w ago4751346MidSellNo88¢$44
8w ago4751346MidSellNo88¢$18
8w ago4751346MidSellNo86¢$17
8w agoStarMasterMidSellNo81¢$483
9w ago4751346MidSellNo85¢$85
9w ago4751346MidBuyNo80¢$159
9w ago4751346MidBuyNo80¢$1
9w agoStarMasterMidBuyNo73¢$183
9w agoStarMasterMidBuyNo78¢$39
9w agoshiifooMidBuyNo79¢$4
9w agoStarMasterMidBuyNo79¢$2
9w agoStarMasterMidBuyNo79¢$38
9w agoStarMasterMidBuyNo81¢$4
9w agoStarMasterMidBuyNo81¢$12
9w agoStarMasterMidBuyNo81¢$12
9w agoStarMasterMidBuyNo83¢$27
9w agoStarMasterMidBuyNo83¢$15
9w agoStarMasterMidBuyNo80¢$53
9w ago4751346MidBuyNo86¢$105
9w ago4751346MidBuyNo86¢$110
9w agoshiifooMidBuyYes8.0¢$2
9w ago4751346MidBuyNo84¢$12
9w ago4751346MidBuyNo84¢$0
9w ago4751346MidSellNo88¢$88
9w ago4751346MidBuyNo84¢$17
9w ago4751346MidBuyNo84¢$17
9w ago4751346MidBuyNo84¢$67
11w ago4751346MidBuyNo84¢$9
11w ago4751346MidBuyNo84¢$2
11w ago4751346MidBuyNo84¢$0