Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
ActiveLiquidity $12.1K·Volume $174.4K·Ends Sep 20, 2026
Price now:Yes85%No16%
Smart money leans
Yes
85% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
81%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
85%price85%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$319 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered54¢85¢at 07:39(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesended(Sep 20, 2026)Liquidity$12.1K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are strongly betting on "Yes", with $319 riding on it.
The price of 85% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 54¢; the price was 85¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $319 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:39
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 79¢ | $349 |
| 1w ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 79¢ | $382 |
| 1w ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 79¢ | $347 |
| 1w ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 79¢ | $199 |
| 1w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 17¢ | $85 |
| 3w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 91¢ | $117 |
| 3w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 88¢ | $174 |
| 3w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 90¢ | $212 |
| 3w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $452 |
| 4w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 33¢ | $51 |
| 4w ago | StarMasterMid | Sell | No | 33¢ | $48 |
| 4w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | Yes | 69¢ | $140 |
| 4w ago | StarMasterMid | Buy | No | 31¢ | $159 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $69 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $69 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $69 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $69 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $69 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $69 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $69 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $69 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $69 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $69 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 70¢ | $69 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 71¢ | $98 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 73¢ | $101 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 73¢ | $216 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 75¢ | $520 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 77¢ | $1 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 77¢ | $111 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 77¢ | $20 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 76¢ | $1,007 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 77¢ | $399 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 81¢ | $2 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 81¢ | $212 |
| 5w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 81¢ | $3 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 81¢ | $82 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 81¢ | $96 |
| 6w ago | AddarashMid | Sell | Yes | 81¢ | $46 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $51 |
| 6w ago | Jellow2Top | Buy | Yes | 72¢ | $53 |
| 6w ago | FakePollsTop | Sell | Yes | 69¢ | $95 |
| 6w ago | FakePollsTop | Sell | Yes | 69¢ | $7 |
| 6w ago | FakePollsTop | Sell | Yes | 69¢ | $29 |
| 6w ago | FakePollsTop | Sell | Yes | 69¢ | $76 |
| 6w ago | FakePollsTop | Sell | Yes | 69¢ | $27 |
| 6w ago | FakePollsTop | Sell | Yes | 69¢ | $39 |
| 6w ago | FakePollsTop | Sell | Yes | 69¢ | $235 |
| 7w ago | RailcoolTop | Sell | Yes | 90¢ | $93 |
| 7w ago | clazzy1Mid | Sell | Yes | 83¢ | $150 |