Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
ActiveLiquidity $11.6K·Volume $18.4K·Ends Apr 18, 2027
Price now:Yes22%No78%
Smart money leans
No
78% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
80%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
78%price78%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$3,202 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$40
72h +$524
Smart money entered82¢78¢at 17:12(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy7h agoResolvesin 158d(Apr 18, 2027)Liquidity$11.6K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "No", with $3,202 riding on it.
The price of 78% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 82¢; the price was 78¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $3,202 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$40, +$524 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 17:12
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7h ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 77¢ | $40 |
| 1d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $45 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $78 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $38 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 78¢ | $78 |
| 1d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 21¢ | $45 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 75¢ | $38 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $49 |
| 1d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $49 |
| 2d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $80 |
| 2d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 80¢ | $80 |
| 3d ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 83¢ | $34 |
| 5w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $359 |
| 5w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 82¢ | $814 |
| 5w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 84¢ | $42 |
| 5w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 87¢ | $200 |
| 5w ago | StudentMoneyMid | Buy | No | 85¢ | $68 |