| Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.4K | 62¢ | 72¢ | $1,020 | +$140 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2K | 37¢ | 31¢ | $628 | -$109 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 493.4 | 84¢ | 83¢ | $412 | -$3 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | No | 359.3 | 85¢ | 92¢ | $330 | +$24 |
| Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? | No | 381.7 | 83¢ | 83¢ | $319 | +$2 |
| Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 353.5 | 59¢ | 69¢ | $244 | +$35 |
| Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 169.8 | 61¢ | 70¢ | $120 | +$17 |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | No | 216.4 | 41¢ | 51¢ | $110 | +$22 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? | Yes | 343.7 | 23¢ | 31¢ | $107 | +$29 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 540.1 | 13¢ | 15¢ | $84 | +$15 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 91.8 | 63¢ | 66¢ | $61 | +$3 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | Yes | 196.7 | 12¢ | 30¢ | $58 | +$34 |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | No | 409.6 | 15¢ | 11¢ | $47 | -$13 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 75% or higher? | Yes | 630.7 | 4.5¢ | 6.2¢ | $39 | +$11 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 226.2 | 51¢ | 14¢ | $33 | -$82 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 300 | 31¢ | 11¢ | $32 | -$62 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 387.5 | 11¢ | 6.6¢ | $26 | -$18 |
| Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 30.2 | 61¢ | 71¢ | $21 | +$3 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | Yes | 40 | 39¢ | 48¢ | $19 | +$4 |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 25.9 | 29¢ | 68¢ | $18 | +$10 |
| Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? | Yes | 124.9 | 5.1¢ | 7.6¢ | $10 | +$3 |
| Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? | No | 27 | 70¢ | 32¢ | $9 | -$10 |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | No | 4.9 | 80¢ | 99¢ | $5 | +$1 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 50¢ | 34¢ | $2 | -$1 |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 26¢ | $1 | +$1 |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Oman by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 73.2 | 0.5¢ | 1.3¢ | $1 | +$1 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 18¢ | $1 | +$1 |
| Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Turkey by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 50.1 | 2.7¢ | 1.7¢ | $1 | -$1 |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 15¢ | $1 | +$1 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 15¢ | $1 | +$1 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 5.5¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 5.3¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 4.8¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 4.5¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 4.0¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 3.5¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 3.2¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 2.9¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 2.9¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 2.5¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 2.5¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 2.4¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 2.4¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 2.1¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 1.6¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 1.5¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 1.1¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.9¢ | $0 | +$0 |
| Will Chris Van Hollen win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.8¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.8¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.8¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.8¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.8¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.7¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.5¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Tim Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.4¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Shawn Fain win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Rick Scott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.3¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Abigail Spanberger win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Mitch Landrieu win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Candace Owens win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Mike Johnson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Scott Colom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Adam Hamilton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Adam Schiff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 5 | 0.8¢ | 0.1¢ | $0 | -$0 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | Yes | 100 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$26 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | No | 962.6 | 12¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$112 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026? | No | 111.8 | 27¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$30 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 20 | 29¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$6 |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? | No | 429.4 | 88¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$379 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? | No | 4.3K | 34¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,479 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes | 3K | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$442 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 241 | 0.5¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: July | Something | 3.9K | 20¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$780 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | No | 2.6K | 57¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1,473 |
| US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026? | No | 33.6 | 3.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Yes | 390.6 | 15¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$59 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? | Yes | 265.5 | 25¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$66 |
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 30, 2026? | No | 2.4K | 23¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$557 |
| Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by September 15, 2026? | Yes | 44 | 7.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$3 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | No | 20.7 | 26¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$5 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | Up | 15 | 9.3¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | Yes | 81.3 | 28¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$23 |
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by March 31, 2027? | No | 3.1K | 11¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$348 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 2.6K | 7.9¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$206 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 157.8 | 0.8¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$1 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026? | Yes | 270.7 | 73¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$197 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? | No | 696.9 | 60¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$419 |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | No | 518.7 | 10.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$52 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | No | 1.4K | 17¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$247 |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026? | No | 119.6 | 38¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$46 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | Yes | 213.4 | 42¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | -$89 |