Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $682.4K·Volume $12.0M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes2%No98%
Smart money leans
Yes
2% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
2%price2%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$401 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered2.7¢2.1¢at 00:08(0% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$682.4K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $401 riding on it.
The price of 2% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 2.7¢; the price was 2.1¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $401 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:08
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d ago | MeckyMid | Sell | Yes | 3.4¢ | $55 |
| 6d ago | Optimus-Mid | Sell | Yes | 2.1¢ | $669 |
| 6d ago | MeckyMid | Buy | Yes | 3.5¢ | $527 |
| 6d ago | nnimroddMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $162 |
| 6d ago | nnimroddMid | Buy | Yes | 3.3¢ | $104 |
| 6d ago | nnimroddMid | Buy | Yes | 3.1¢ | $6 |
| 2w ago | title1Mid | Sell | Yes | 2.5¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | l3t0Mid | Sell | Yes | 2.6¢ | $13 |
| 3w ago | MeckyMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 3w ago | Optimus-Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $847 |
| 3w ago | Optimus-Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | Optimus-Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | Optimus-Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | Optimus-Mid | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 7w ago | nnimroddMid | Buy | Yes | 2.4¢ | $104 |