Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
ActiveLiquidity $611·Volume $57.0K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes35%No65%
Smart money leans
Yes
36% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
36%price36%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$447 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered50¢36¢at 07:45(0% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$611
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $447 riding on it.
The price of 36% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 50¢; the price was 36¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $447 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:45
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Sell | Yes | 28¢ | $28 |
| 2w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Sell | Yes | 33¢ | $16 |
| 2w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Sell | Yes | 33¢ | $44 |
| 2w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Sell | Yes | 33¢ | $22 |
| 6w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Buy | Yes | 52¢ | $412 |
| 6w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $184 |
| 6w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $81 |
| 6w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Buy | Yes | 44¢ | $125 |