Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $240.6K·Volume $2.0M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes0%No100%
Smart money leans
Yes
0% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
0%price0%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$322 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered0.6¢0.4¢at 00:31(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy6d agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$240.6K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $322 riding on it.
The price of 0% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 0.6¢; the price was 0.4¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $322 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 00:31
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d ago | qizhanMid | Sell | Yes | 0.6¢ | $5 |
| 4d ago | qizhanMid | Buy | Yes | 0.7¢ | $6 |
| 6d ago | DragontreeMid | Buy | Yes | 0.9¢ | $374 |
| 1w ago | DragontreeMid | Buy | Yes | 0.5¢ | $68 |
| 1w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $57 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $53 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $2 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $1 |
| 3w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $9 |
| 5w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $21 |