Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $5,366·Volume $259.4K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes15%No85%
Smart money leans
Yes
15% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
85%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
15%price15%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$1,227 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered63¢15¢at 21:35(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$5,366
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,227 riding on it.
The price of 15% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 63¢; the price was 15¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Delayed 1h · as of 21:35
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Sell | Yes | 22¢ | $139 |
| 4w ago | dromedaryyTop | Buy | Yes | 31¢ | $529 |
| 5w ago | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Mid | Buy | Yes | 30¢ | $201 |
| 7w ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 62¢ | $1,847 |
| 8w ago | seal7Top | Buy | Yes | 77¢ | $1,347 |
| 8w ago | JabJabichTop | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $138 |
| 8w ago | JabJabichTop | Buy | Yes | 81¢ | $1,053 |
| 8w ago | JabJabichTop | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $46 |
| 8w ago | JabJabichTop | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $5 |
| 8w ago | JabJabichTop | Buy | Yes | 82¢ | $110 |
| 8w ago | GrokEnjoyerTop | Buy | Yes | 90¢ | $122 |
| 8w ago | JabJabichTop | Buy | Yes | 79¢ | $81 |
| 8w ago | JabJabichTop | Buy | Yes | 76¢ | $63 |
| 8w ago | GrokEnjoyerTop | Buy | No | 49¢ | $25 |
| 9w ago | GrokEnjoyerTop | Buy | No | 51¢ | $246 |