Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $672.0K·Volume $20.0M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
Yes
3% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
3%price3%model est.*
Smart wallets
5
$6,133 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h +$1,021
Smart money entered1.9¢2.9¢at 03:20(49% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy2d agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$672.0K
Explanation
5 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $6,133 riding on it.
The price of 3% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 1.9¢; the price was 2.9¢ at this snapshot — roughly 49% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have added +$1,021 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 03:20
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2d ago | DragontreeMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $968 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 2d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $0 |
| 4d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $4 |
| 4d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $27 |
| 4d ago | G.HchenTop | Buy | Yes | 2.6¢ | $216 |
| 1w ago | DragontreeMid | Buy | Yes | 2.8¢ | $1,313 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $9 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $19 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $81 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | ifyoulovemeTop | Buy | Yes | 2.3¢ | $0 |