Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $450.7K·Volume $9.9M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
Yes
1% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
77%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
1%price1%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$439 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered1.9¢0.8¢at 07:11(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$450.7K
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is strongly betting on "Yes", with $439 riding on it.
The price of 1% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 1.9¢; the price was 0.8¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $439 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:11
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $28 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $4 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 1.9¢ | $0 |