Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
ActiveLiquidity $4,036·Volume $28.9K·Ends Dec 31, 2026
Price now:Yes37%No63%
Smart money leans
Yes
37% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
37%price37%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$576 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered44¢37¢at 07:16(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 51d(Dec 31, 2026)Liquidity$4,036
Explanation
1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $576 riding on it.
The price of 37% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 44¢; the price was 37¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $576 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:16
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $29 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $40 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $20 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $21 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $41 |
| 1w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 39¢ | $121 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $1 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $7 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $11 |
| 2w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 28¢ | $6 |
| 3w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $2 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $6 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 41¢ | $8 |
| 4w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 42¢ | $8 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 51¢ | $134 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 50¢ | $25 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 45¢ | $23 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 46¢ | $46 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $9 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 47¢ | $38 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 48¢ | $48 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $25 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 54¢ | $11 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 54¢ | $16 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 54¢ | $11 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 54¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 54¢ | $0 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 49¢ | $9 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $96 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $108 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $110 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 53¢ | $10 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 57¢ | $57 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Sell | Yes | 58¢ | $116 |
| 5w ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 42¢ | $497 |
| 5w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 48¢ | $12 |
| 5w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 45¢ | $5 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $11 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $26 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $12 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 56¢ | $56 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 57¢ | $57 |
| 5w ago | CarMid | Buy | Yes | 55¢ | $6 |