Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $293.0K·Volume $13.7M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes4%No96%
Smart money leans
Yes
4% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.1pp
model above price
Consensus
94%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
4%price4%model est.*
Smart wallets
4
$1,950 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h -$120
Smart money entered2.9¢4.0¢at 05:34(36% priced in)Edge left+0.1ppLast smart buy5d agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$293.0K
Explanation
4 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,950 riding on it.
The price of 4% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 2.9¢; the price was 4.0¢ at this snapshot — roughly 36% of their entry edge is already priced in.
No fresh moves in the last day, but over the past 3 days these wallets have trimmed -$120 on this position.
Delayed 1h · as of 05:34
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 4.1¢ | $11 |
| 1d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 4.1¢ | $11 |
| 2d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 4.1¢ | $50 |
| 2d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 4.1¢ | $20 |
| 2d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 4.1¢ | $20 |
| 2d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 4.1¢ | $10 |
| 2d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 4.1¢ | $0 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 3.9¢ | $48 |
| 3d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $89 |
| 4d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 3.9¢ | $38 |
| 5d ago | 0xcf19c420814435ffb1c459588208ed23a7ee6402Mid | Buy | Yes | 3.5¢ | $489 |
| 6d ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 3.5¢ | $11 |
| 6d ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 3.5¢ | $182 |
| 6d ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 3.5¢ | $105 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 3.8¢ | $42 |
| 6d ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 4.0¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | scrapbookMid | Sell | Yes | 3.4¢ | $323 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 3.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 3.8¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 3.6¢ | $18 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 3.7¢ | $1 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 3.8¢ | $8 |
| 1w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 3.8¢ | $8 |
| 2w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 3.7¢ | $5 |
| 2w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Sell | Yes | 3.7¢ | $3 |
| 2w ago | Contestable-ParfaitTop | Buy | Yes | 3.5¢ | $1,420 |
| 4w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 2.8¢ | $6 |
| 4w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 2.9¢ | $6 |
| 6w ago | plumbisMid | Buy | Yes | 2.5¢ | $44 |
| 11w ago | ancianoMid | Sell | Yes | 2.3¢ | $2 |