Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $449.8K·Volume $20.7M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes1%No99%
Smart money leans
Yes
1% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
1%price1%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$651 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered0.6¢0.7¢at 04:55(2% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy1w agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$449.8K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $651 riding on it.
The price of 1% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 0.6¢; the price was 0.7¢ at this snapshot — roughly 2% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $651 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 04:55
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1w ago | DragontreeMid | Buy | Yes | 0.4¢ | $373 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $150 |
| 1w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.3¢ | $0 |