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Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?

Polymarket
ActiveLiquidity $70.5K·Volume $363.7K·Ends Jan 1, 2029
Price now:Yes17%No84%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of Nov 10, 23:48computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
16% at snapshot
Divergence
+0.0pp
model above price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
16%price16%model est.*
Smart wallets
1
$22.6K at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered17¢16¢at Nov 10, 23:48(0% priced in)Edge left+0.0ppLast smart buy3w agoResolvesin 782d(Jan 1, 2029)Liquidity$70.5K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

1 wallet with a track record of profitable trading is overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $22.6K riding on it.

The price of 16% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 17¢; the price was 16¢ at this snapshot — roughly 0% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $22.6K of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Delayed 1h · as of Nov 10, 23:48
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
1w ago1nvoker1MidSellYes17¢$94
1w ago1nvoker1MidSellYes17¢$0
1w ago1nvoker1MidSellYes17¢$0
1w ago1nvoker1MidSellYes17¢$10
1w ago1nvoker1MidSellYes17¢$2
1w ago1nvoker1MidSellYes17¢$55
1w ago1nvoker1MidSellYes17¢$8
1w agoCarMidSellYes16¢$3,768
1w ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes16¢$160
1w ago1nvoker1MidSellYes17¢$200
1w agoCarMidBuyYes17¢$1
1w agoCarMidBuyYes17¢$0
1w agoCarMidBuyYes18¢$1
1w ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes14¢$65
1w ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes16¢$34
1w ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes15¢$62
1w ago1nvoker1MidBuyYes15¢$13
2w agoCarMidBuyYes17¢$170
2w agoCarMidBuyYes17¢$3
3w agoCarMidBuyYes18¢$3,600
3w agoCarMidBuyYes17¢$430
3w agoAnjunMidSellYes16¢$820
3w agoAnjunMidSellYes17¢$87
3w agoAnjunMidBuyYes17¢$0
3w agoAnjunMidBuyYes17¢$85
3w agoAnjunMidBuyYes17¢$1
3w agoAnjunMidBuyYes17¢$1
3w agoAnjunMidBuyYes17¢$34
3w agoAnjunMidBuyYes17¢$0
3w agoAnjunMidBuyYes17¢$112
3w agoAnjunMidBuyYes17¢$758
3w agoCarMidSellNo82¢$24,600
3w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$2,843
3w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$900
3w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$1
3w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$0
3w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$0
3w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$90
3w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$4
3w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$32
3w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$2
3w agodromedaryyMidSellYes19¢$0
3w agodromedaryyMidSellYes19¢$15
4w agodromedaryyMidSellYes19¢$5
4w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$4
4w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$900
4w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$1
4w agodromedaryyMidSellYes19¢$1
4w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$5
4w agodromedaryyMidBuyYes18¢$2