Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
ActiveLiquidity $175.4K·Volume $6.4M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes3%No97%
Smart money leans
Yes
3% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
3%price3%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$1,292 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$653
72h +$781
Smart money entered1.3¢3.4¢at 02:24(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$175.4K
Explanation
3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,292 riding on it.
The price of 3% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 1.3¢; the price was 3.4¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$653, +$781 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 02:24
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.8¢ | $3 |
| 4h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.8¢ | $3 |
| 16h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.8¢ | $420 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $14 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $2 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $2 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $2 |
| 17h ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $7 |
| 1d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $27 |
| 1d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $27 |
| 1d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $0 |
| 1d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $3 |
| 1d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.7¢ | $54 |
| 5d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.0¢ | $399 |
| 5d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.0¢ | $0 |
| 5d ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 2.0¢ | $1 |
| 6d ago | congoterrierMid | Buy | Yes | 1.5¢ | $7 |
| 1w ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $9 |
| 1w ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $45 |
| 1w ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | Yes | 1.0¢ | $12 |
| 1w ago | l3t0Mid | Buy | Yes | 0.9¢ | $147 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $0 |
| 2w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.6¢ | $2 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $103 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |
| 3w ago | lastminwinMid | Buy | Yes | 0.8¢ | $0 |