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Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

ActiveLiquidity $175.4K·Volume $6.4M·Ends Nov 8, 2028
Price now:Yes3%No97%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 02:24computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
3% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Model estimate (unvalidated)
3%price3%model est.*
Smart wallets
3
$1,292 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$653
72h +$781
Smart money entered1.3¢3.4¢at 02:24(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy4h agoResolvesin 728d(Nov 8, 2028)Liquidity$175.4K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

3 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $1,292 riding on it.

The price of 3% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 1.3¢; the price was 3.4¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$653, +$781 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 02:24
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
4h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.8¢$3
4h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.8¢$3
16h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.8¢$420
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$14
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$14
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$14
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$14
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$14
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$14
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$14
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$14
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$14
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$14
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$14
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$2
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$2
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$2
17h agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$7
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$27
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$27
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$0
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$3
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$3
1d agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.7¢$54
5d agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.0¢$399
5d agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.0¢$0
5d agolastminwinMidBuyYes2.0¢$1
6d agocongoterrierMidBuyYes1.5¢$7
1w agol3t0MidBuyYes1.0¢$3
1w agol3t0MidBuyYes1.0¢$9
1w agol3t0MidBuyYes1.0¢$45
1w agol3t0MidBuyYes1.0¢$12
1w agol3t0MidBuyYes0.9¢$147
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$0
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$0
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$0
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$0
2w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.6¢$2
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.8¢$103
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.8¢$0
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.8¢$0
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.8¢$0
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.8¢$0
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.8¢$0
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.8¢$0
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.8¢$0
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.8¢$0
3w agolastminwinMidBuyYes0.8¢$0