Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
ActiveLiquidity $690·Volume $72.6K·Ends Jan 1, 2027
Price now:Yes90%No10%
Smart money leans
Yes
90% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
62%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
90%price90%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$362 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
$0
72h $0
Smart money entered41¢90¢at 07:44(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneSignal age30dResolvesin 51d(Jan 1, 2027)Liquidity$690
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are somewhat betting on "Yes", with $362 riding on it.
The price of 90% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 41¢; the price was 90¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $362 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Delayed 1h · as of 07:44
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2w ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 69¢ | $166 |
| 6w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 48¢ | $39 |
| 6w ago | 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876Mid | Buy | Yes | 54¢ | $45 |
| 7w ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $94 |
| 8w ago | troimMid | Buy | Yes | 40¢ | $181 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 51¢ | $15 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 52¢ | $21 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 48¢ | $47 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 48¢ | $401 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Sell | No | 57¢ | $16 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 51¢ | $8 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 51¢ | $3 |
| 12w ago | viniiTop | Buy | No | 50¢ | $276 |