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BigRabbit

ProbationPolymarket
0xeb22f4735df6bd5d14e1b5fd10faefa7757d808a
Tracking since Nov 8, 2026 · bankroll $124.7K
Quality score
0
Newas of Nov 9, 2026
PnL 30d
-$22.8K
PnL 90d
-$27.0K
ROI 90d
-12%
on $224.4K deployed
Entry edge
56%
79 resolved markets
Volume 90d
$879.6K
5486 trades
Breadth 90d
308
distinct markets
Quality score — 90 days
Delayed 1h · as of 12:55
MarketOutcomeSizeAvg priceCurrentValuePnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes180K2.3¢15¢$26,640+$22.6K
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes25K41¢33¢$8,374-$1,969
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes75K10.0¢9.5¢$7,125-$369
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes50K13¢13¢$6,675+$61
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes50K12¢13¢$6,250+$283
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes250K1.2¢2.0¢$5,000+$2,070
Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?Yes6K74¢81¢$4,880+$441
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Yes99.6K9.0¢4.8¢$4,832-$4,146
Will Houston Rockets win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes100K2.1¢4.7¢$4,750+$2,651
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Yes28.4K19¢16¢$4,689-$847
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes200K1.1¢2.2¢$4,400+$2,232
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes4K19¢97¢$3,884+$3,132
Will Chuck Schumer be the next Senate Majority Leader?No40K11¢9.5¢$3,800-$599
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes3.8K26¢98¢$3,767+$2,767
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?Yes11K26¢30¢$3,249+$434
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes66.7K4.4¢4.5¢$3,037+$73
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Yes15.7K34¢19¢$2,979-$2,320
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?Yes2.5K33¢96¢$2,409+$1,575
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes100K3.0¢2.1¢$2,150-$839
Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?No2K16¢97¢$1,947+$1,631
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat?Yes2K14¢97¢$1,947+$1,662
Will Atlanta Hawks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes150.2K0.9¢1.0¢$1,577+$158
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes253.4K0.9¢0.5¢$1,394-$763
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?No20K6.7¢6.2¢$1,230-$110
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?Yes1K27¢99¢$995+$724
JD Vance out as VP by December 31?Yes30.9K6.5¢3.1¢$974-$1,021
Will Doug Burgum win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes446.7K0.1¢0.1¢$670+$23
Will John N. Kennedy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes250K0.2¢0.3¢$625+$125
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?Yes10.5K6.0¢5.3¢$551-$79
Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?No2.2K20¢23¢$513+$67
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes50K0.4¢0.7¢$350+$150
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes2.5K5.3¢13¢$331+$199
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by March 31, 2027?Yes1.4K24¢22¢$317-$20
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes46.7K0.3¢0.6¢$303+$146
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes5.4K4.6¢4.5¢$246-$3
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 14?Yes2.5K10¢8.0¢$200-$50
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?Yes20039¢99¢$198+$120
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes75K0.3¢0.2¢$188-$37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Yes3.1K3.1¢4.3¢$134+$37
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-02 House seat?Yes4K14¢1.1¢$47-$518
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?Yes259.430¢14¢$38-$40
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes112.65.0¢30¢$33+$28
Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?Yes112.438¢25¢$28-$15
Will the Republican Party win the SC-02 House seat?No2.5K14¢1.1¢$27-$311
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-07 House seat?Yes1.5K24¢1.3¢$20-$346
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?Yes50033¢3.3¢$17-$149
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?Yes50034¢2.3¢$11-$158
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes2.1K0.4¢0.5¢$11+$3
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?No68.649¢11¢$8-$26
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat?Yes76.96.0¢7.7¢$6+$1
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes832.91.9¢0.6¢$5-$10
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more?Yes1.3K3.1¢0.4¢$5-$37
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-07 House seat?Yes32033¢1.1¢$4-$102
Will the Atlanta Hawks be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion?Yes69.22.1¢5.3¢$4+$2
US x Cuba economic deal by December 31, 2026?Yes5042¢5.5¢$3-$18
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 12% or more?Yes860.52.2¢0.2¢$2-$17
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 9%-12%?Yes605.35.0¢0.3¢$2-$28
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%?Yes2K15¢0.1¢$1-$301
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?Yes2K36¢0.0¢$1-$718
Will the New York Knicks be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion?Yes520¢18¢$1-$0
Will the Utah Jazz make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?Yes3.735¢6.0¢$0-$1
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?No1.927¢9.5¢$0-$0
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes0.223¢20¢$0-$0
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Dakota Senate election by 10%-15%?Yes1527¢0.1¢$0-$4
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Louisiana Senate election by 5%-10%?Yes32.721¢0.0¢$0-$7
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes16.60.1¢0.0¢$0-$0
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Yes34.1K17¢0.0¢$0-$5,899
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?Yes1.3K27¢0.0¢$0-$333
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?Yes455.3¢0.0¢$0-$2
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat?Yes1.3K15¢0.0¢$0-$197
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?Yes5K31¢0.0¢$0-$1,548
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Yes12927¢0.0¢$0-$35
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?Yes3K26¢0.0¢$0-$791
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?No15K30¢0.0¢$0-$4,518
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?Yes12.5K19¢0.0¢$0-$2,383