Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?
ActiveLiquidity $28.1K·Volume $19.7K·Ends Jan 3, 2027
Price now:Yes96%No5%
Smart money leans
Yes
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$3,074 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$5,739
72h +$7,627
Smart money entered77¢96¢at 19:18(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy10h agoResolvesin 53d(Jan 3, 2027)Liquidity$28.1K
Explanation
2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $3,074 riding on it.
The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.
On average they got in at 77¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.
Note: only $3,074 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.
Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$5,739, +$7,627 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.
Delayed 1h · as of 19:18
| Time | Wallet | Side | Outcome | Price | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8h ago | PondermintTop | Sell | Yes | 89¢ | $45 |
| 8h ago | PondermintTop | Sell | Yes | 89¢ | $45 |
| 10h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $42 |
| 10h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $42 |
| 10h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $42 |
| 10h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | Yes | 84¢ | $42 |
| 10h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $85 |
| 10h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | Yes | 85¢ | $85 |
| 10h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $172 |
| 10h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $172 |
| 13h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $132 |
| 13h ago | PondermintTop | Buy | Yes | 86¢ | $132 |
| 20h ago | JSG3Top | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $1,992 |
| 20h ago | JSG3Top | Buy | Yes | 80¢ | $1,992 |
| 1d ago | JSG3Top | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $653 |
| 1d ago | JSG3Top | Buy | Yes | 66¢ | $653 |
| 1w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 32¢ | $3 |
| 1w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Sell | No | 32¢ | $6 |
| 1w ago | SpringlyFawlMid | Buy | No | 38¢ | $11 |