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Will John Thune be the next US Senate Minority Leader?

ActiveLiquidity $28.1K·Volume $19.7K·Ends Jan 3, 2027
Price now:Yes96%No5%

Smart-money signal

What is this?Delayed 1h · as of 19:18computed 1h ago
Smart money leans
Yes
96% at snapshot
Divergence
0.0pp
model below price
Consensus
100%
Low stake
Model estimate (unvalidated)
96%price96%model est.*
Smart wallets
2
$3,074 at stake
Net flow 24h / 72h
+$5,739
72h +$7,627
Smart money entered77¢96¢at 19:18(100% priced in)Edge leftnoneLast smart buy10h agoResolvesin 53d(Jan 3, 2027)Liquidity$28.1K
Model estimate vs market price — 7 days
Explanation

2 wallets with a track record of profitable trading are overwhelmingly betting on "Yes", with $3,074 riding on it.

The price of 96% at this snapshot already lines up with the model's read of these wallets' bets — there's not much of an edge left here.

On average they got in at 77¢; the price was 96¢ at this snapshot — roughly 100% of their entry edge is already priced in.

Note: only $3,074 of qualifying stake backs this signal, so treat it with caution.

Over the last 24 hours, these wallets have been adding to this position (+$5,739, +$7,627 over 3 days) — a sign conviction is building.

Delayed 1h · as of 19:18
TimeWalletSideOutcomePriceAmount
8h agoPondermintTopSellYes89¢$45
8h agoPondermintTopSellYes89¢$45
10h agoPondermintTopBuyYes84¢$42
10h agoPondermintTopBuyYes84¢$42
10h agoPondermintTopBuyYes84¢$42
10h agoPondermintTopBuyYes84¢$42
10h agoPondermintTopBuyYes85¢$85
10h agoPondermintTopBuyYes85¢$85
10h agoPondermintTopBuyYes86¢$172
10h agoPondermintTopBuyYes86¢$172
13h agoPondermintTopBuyYes86¢$132
13h agoPondermintTopBuyYes86¢$132
20h agoJSG3TopBuyYes80¢$1,992
20h agoJSG3TopBuyYes80¢$1,992
1d agoJSG3TopBuyYes66¢$653
1d agoJSG3TopBuyYes66¢$653
1w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo32¢$3
1w agoSpringlyFawlMidSellNo32¢$6
1w agoSpringlyFawlMidBuyNo38¢$11